Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-14

2026-05-14.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-14",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-14T23:50:33.401Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 34,
+    "geoRisk": 51,
+    "breadth": 0.42,
+    "activity": 0
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 742.77,
+      "changePct": 0.72
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 715.94,
+      "changePct": 1.39
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 282.78,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.32,
+      "changePct": 1.71
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.2,
+      "changePct": 0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.33,
+      "changePct": 0.01
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 84.78,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.9,
+      "changePct": 0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 430.85,
+      "changePct": -0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 141.42,
+      "changePct": -2.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.02,
+      "changePct": 1.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 40.27,
+      "changePct": -0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.51,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.04,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 57.63,
+      "changePct": 0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 67.14,
+      "changePct": 1.96
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.11,
+      "changePct": -1.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.32,
+      "changePct": -0.92
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "margin of victory for Democrats in th… overshooting South Dakota Senate Election Winner — 55¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "What will the average monthly Ethereu… lagging WTI front-month settle oil price be >… — 22¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "rate of core PCE inflation be above 0… overshooting Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at… — 18¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-14 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 34 | GeoRisk 51 | Breadth +0.42 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] margin of victory for Democrats in th… overshooting South Dakota Senate Election Winner — 55¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"South Dakota Senate Election Winner: Democrat\",\"Δ\":\"-27c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Louisiana's 2nd District House e\",\"Δ\":\"51c\"}\n- gap: -55\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0xf4f5714f7e70dda23fcbe21b9de67060cd6ab7a8a972686ff8495e45059ae531\n- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-LA02D-P38\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-k7vnov`\n  → South Dakota Senate Election Winner: Democrat spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] What will the average monthly Ethereu… lagging WTI front-month settle oil price be >… — 22¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >85.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $86 or abo\",\"Δ\":\"24c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 40 Gwei\",\"Δ\":\"8c\"}\n- gap: 22\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXWTI-26NOV03-T85.99\n- laggingTicker: 0xb5d84b0d831b64feb65dbd8f8b6ff92ac739cfdd13676770d2b13087f1a0d386\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-8z6ae9`\n  → Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >85.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $86 or abo spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] rate of core PCE inflation be above 0… overshooting Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at… — 18¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Fed ma\",\"Δ\":\"-23c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April 2026?: Above 0.3%\",\"Δ\":\"12c\"}\n- gap: -18\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-H0\n- laggingTicker: KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-u2kjqd`\n  → Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Fed ma spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] at least 4 judges be confirmed in May?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJUDGECOUNT\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-0\",\"title\":\"Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in May 2026?: At least 1\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-1\",\"title\":\"Will at least 2 ju...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4ed4u4`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [residual] 2.9σ volume @ 80¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.0%\n- price: 80\n- residualVr: 2.908\n- vr: 3.064\n- volume24h: 525\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3ntw`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0`\n\n## [regime_shift] geopolitical tension rising: GeoRisk 26→51 (+25)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-14T11:30:00.085Z\n- driver: geopolitics\n- primaryMover: GeoRisk\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":26,\"to\":51,\"Δ\":25,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":34,\"geoRisk\":26,\"breadth\":0.43,\"activity\":14}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":34,\"geoRisk\":51,\"breadth\":0.42,\"activity\":0}\n  → drill into geopolitics · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/geopolitics`\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY15-4.525\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.525?: Above 4.525\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY15-4.525`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY15-4.525`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY15-4.550\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.550?: Above 4.550\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY15-4.550`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY15-4.550`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 210 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 338 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1129 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 637 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2901 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 849 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 283 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 360 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1842
+}