Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-18

2026-04-18.json

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-18",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-18T21:51:45.973Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 46,
+    "geoRisk": 29,
+    "breadth": 0.3,
+    "activity": 100
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 710.26,
+      "changePct": 1.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 648.75,
+      "changePct": 1.46
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 275.61,
+      "changePct": 2.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.98,
+      "changePct": -1.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.63,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.91,
+      "changePct": 0.53
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 87.06,
+      "changePct": 0.97
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.63,
+      "changePct": 0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 444.27,
+      "changePct": 1.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 116.49,
+      "changePct": -7.26
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.83,
+      "changePct": 0.28
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 37.3,
+      "changePct": 1.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.35,
+      "changePct": -0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.63,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 54.9,
+      "changePct": -3.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.61,
+      "changePct": 1.88
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 43.86,
+      "changePct": 2.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 19.73,
+      "changePct": 2.95
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh … lagging Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh … — 23¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Equity-oil split: SPY +1.1% vs Oil -7.3% — demand pulling, supply stable",
+      "implication": "demand pulling, supply stable",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-18 21:50 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 46 | GeoRisk 29 | Breadth +0.30 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 6.0σ volume @ 31¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27JAN-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 31\n- residualVr: 6.015\n- vr: 6.58\n- volume24h: 532\n  → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-acupq1`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27JAN-T4.00`\n  → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27JAN-T4.00`\n\n## [residual] 5.2σ volume @ 34¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 34\n- residualVr: 5.225\n- vr: 5.79\n- volume24h: 703\n  → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om4kw5`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T4.00`\n  → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T4.00`\n\n## [divergence] Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh … lagging Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh … — 23¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: John Kennedy\",\"Δ\":\"37c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: Kevin Cramer\",\"Δ\":\"69c\"}\n- gap: 23\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x5e3e39952dc2156edc0de2cde04d7467ab46f8428cde6963fbd73e1c430b5829\n- laggingTicker: 0xfe6ad3c84f701a4338a0aa9f5fa979e38b0c199b280a669c44a00b1e2268d115\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-7dgjy4`\n  → Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: John Kennedy spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the Ap…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXCBDECISIONEU\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXCBDECISIONEU-26APR30-HOLD\",\"title\":\"Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?: Maintain curr...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3gp09b`\n\n## [consensus_break] PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 232722\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xc6867b3fa6b81bbb65f85a3a7302757624137a6c128b685e5a4645e1243d01ee\",\"title\":\"PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: Janelle Stelson\",\"price\":94},{\"ticker\":\"0xead98c2f05aa5...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xr8vi5`\n\n## [consensus_break] Matt Fitzpatrick beat Viktor Hovland in the …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXPGAH2H\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXPGAH2H-RBH26R3VHOVMFIT-VHOV\",\"title\":\"Will Viktor Hovland beat Matt Fitzpatrick in the 3rd round of the RBC Heritage?: Viktor Hovland beats Matt Fitzpatrick in the...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-e9oqe0`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY +1.1% vs Oil -7.3% — demand pulling, supply stable\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+1.1%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"-7.3%\"}\n- hypothesis: demand pulling, supply stable\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n  → SPY spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 6h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR19-4.090\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.090?: Above 4.090\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR19-4.090`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR19-4.090`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 16h — Trump post on Truth Social between 3:00 AM a…\n- ticker: KXTRUMPTIME-26APR18-H3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump post on Truth Social between 3:00 AM and 3:59 AM ET this week?: 3:00-3:59 AM\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 16\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPTIME-26APR18-H3`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPTIME-26APR18-H3`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% no in 16h — Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth …\n- ticker: KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR18-B149\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 12, 2026?: 140-159\n- price: 7\n- settlesInHours: 16\n- impliedProbability: 0.07\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR18-B149`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR18-B149`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 267 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 477 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1287 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 663 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2974 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1347 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 273 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 217 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: /api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 5060ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1555
+}