Daily Papers

Traditional 2D pose estimation models are limited by their category-specific design, making them suitable only for predefined object categories. This restriction becomes particularly challenging when dealing with novel objects due to the lack of relevant training data. To address this limitation, category-agnostic pose estimation (CAPE) was introduced. CAPE aims to enable keypoint localization for arbitrary object categories using a single model, requiring minimal support images with annotated keypoints. This approach not only enables object pose generation based on arbitrary keypoint definitions but also significantly reduces the associated costs, paving the way for versatile and adaptable pose estimation applications. We present a novel approach to CAPE that leverages the inherent geometrical relations between keypoints through a newly designed Graph Transformer Decoder. By capturing and incorporating this crucial structural information, our method enhances the accuracy of keypoint localization, marking a significant departure from conventional CAPE techniques that treat keypoints as isolated entities. We validate our approach on the MP-100 benchmark, a comprehensive dataset comprising over 20,000 images spanning more than 100 categories. Our method outperforms the prior state-of-the-art by substantial margins, achieving remarkable improvements of 2.16% and 1.82% under 1-shot and 5-shot settings, respectively. Furthermore, our method's end-to-end training demonstrates both scalability and efficiency compared to previous CAPE approaches.

We introduceGraphGPT, a novel self-supervised generative pre-trained model for graph learning based on the Graph Eulerian Transformer (GET). First, we propose GET, which combines a standard transformer encoder or decoder architecture with an innovative graph-to-sequence transformation method. This method converts graphs or sampled subgraphs into sequences of tokens representing nodes, edges, and attributes in a reversible manner using Eulerian paths. We pre-train GET using either of the two self-supervised tasks: next-token prediction (NTP) and scheduled masked-token prediction (SMTP). The pre-trained model is then fine-tuned for downstream tasks such as graph-, edge-, and node-level prediction. Despite its simplicity, GraphGPT achieves performance comparable to or surpassing state-of-the-art methods on multiple large-scale Open Graph Benchmark (OGB) datasets. It demonstrates exceptional results on the molecular property prediction dataset PCQM4Mv2 and the protein-protein interaction dataset ogbl-ppa. Notably, generative pre-training enables scaling GraphGPT to 2 billion parameters while maintaining performance gains - a breakthrough that overcomes the scalability limitations of traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and prior graph transformers (GTs). To advance research in graph foundation models and facilitate scientific discovery in chemistry, materials science, and related fields, we will release the source code (https://github.com/alibaba/graph-gpt) and pre-trained checkpoints.

Contextual Text Block Detection (CTBD) is the task of identifying coherent text blocks within the complexity of natural scenes. Previous methodologies have treated CTBD as either a visual relation extraction challenge within computer vision or as a sequence modeling problem from the perspective of natural language processing. We introduce a new framework that frames CTBD as a graph generation problem. This methodology consists of two essential procedures: identifying individual text units as graph nodes and discerning the sequential reading order relationships among these units as graph edges. Leveraging the cutting-edge capabilities of DQ-DETR for node detection, our framework innovates further by integrating a novel mechanism, a Dynamic Relation Transformer (DRFormer), dedicated to edge generation. DRFormer incorporates a dual interactive transformer decoder that deftly manages a dynamic graph structure refinement process. Through this iterative process, the model systematically enhances the graph's fidelity, ultimately resulting in improved precision in detecting contextual text blocks. Comprehensive experimental evaluations conducted on both SCUT-CTW-Context and ReCTS-Context datasets substantiate that our method achieves state-of-the-art results, underscoring the effectiveness and potential of our graph generation framework in advancing the field of CTBD.

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

A proper scene representation is central to the pursuit of spatial intelligence where agents can robustly reconstruct and efficiently understand 3D scenes. A scene representation is either metric, such as landmark maps in 3D reconstruction, 3D bounding boxes in object detection, or voxel grids in occupancy prediction, or topological, such as pose graphs with loop closures in SLAM or visibility graphs in SfM. In this work, we propose to build Multiview Scene Graphs (MSG) from unposed images, representing a scene topologically with interconnected place and object nodes. The task of building MSG is challenging for existing representation learning methods since it needs to jointly address both visual place recognition, object detection, and object association from images with limited fields of view and potentially large viewpoint changes. To evaluate any method tackling this task, we developed an MSG dataset and annotation based on a public 3D dataset. We also propose an evaluation metric based on the intersection-over-union score of MSG edges. Moreover, we develop a novel baseline method built on mainstream pretrained vision models, combining visual place recognition and object association into one Transformer decoder architecture. Experiments demonstrate our method has superior performance compared to existing relevant baselines.

Existing research addresses scene graph generation (SGG) -- a critical technology for scene understanding in images -- from a detection perspective, i.e., objects are detected using bounding boxes followed by prediction of their pairwise relationships. We argue that such a paradigm causes several problems that impede the progress of the field. For instance, bounding box-based labels in current datasets usually contain redundant classes like hairs, and leave out background information that is crucial to the understanding of context. In this work, we introduce panoptic scene graph generation (PSG), a new problem task that requires the model to generate a more comprehensive scene graph representation based on panoptic segmentations rather than rigid bounding boxes. A high-quality PSG dataset, which contains 49k well-annotated overlapping images from COCO and Visual Genome, is created for the community to keep track of its progress. For benchmarking, we build four two-stage baselines, which are modified from classic methods in SGG, and two one-stage baselines called PSGTR and PSGFormer, which are based on the efficient Transformer-based detector, i.e., DETR. While PSGTR uses a set of queries to directly learn triplets, PSGFormer separately models the objects and relations in the form of queries from two Transformer decoders, followed by a prompting-like relation-object matching mechanism. In the end, we share insights on open challenges and future directions.

Solving complex Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) accurately and efficiently is an essential and challenging problem in all scientific and engineering disciplines. Mesh movement methods provide the capability to improve the accuracy of the numerical solution without increasing the overall mesh degree of freedom count. Conventional sophisticated mesh movement methods are extremely expensive and struggle to handle scenarios with complex boundary geometries. However, existing learning-based methods require re-training from scratch given a different PDE type or boundary geometry, which limits their applicability, and also often suffer from robustness issues in the form of inverted elements. In this paper, we introduce the Universal Mesh Movement Network (UM2N), which -- once trained -- can be applied in a non-intrusive, zero-shot manner to move meshes with different size distributions and structures, for solvers applicable to different PDE types and boundary geometries. UM2N consists of a Graph Transformer (GT) encoder for extracting features and a Graph Attention Network (GAT) based decoder for moving the mesh. We evaluate our method on advection and Navier-Stokes based examples, as well as a real-world tsunami simulation case. Our method outperforms existing learning-based mesh movement methods in terms of the benchmarks described above. In comparison to the conventional sophisticated Monge-Amp\`ere PDE-solver based method, our approach not only significantly accelerates mesh movement, but also proves effective in scenarios where the conventional method fails. Our project page is at https://erizmr.github.io/UM2N/.

We propose a novel transformer-based framework that reconstructs two high fidelity hands from multi-view RGB images. Unlike existing hand pose estimation methods, where one typically trains a deep network to regress hand model parameters from single RGB image, we consider a more challenging problem setting where we directly regress the absolute root poses of two-hands with extended forearm at high resolution from egocentric view. As existing datasets are either infeasible for egocentric viewpoints or lack background variations, we create a large-scale synthetic dataset with diverse scenarios and collect a real dataset from multi-calibrated camera setup to verify our proposed multi-view image feature fusion strategy. To make the reconstruction physically plausible, we propose two strategies: (i) a coarse-to-fine spectral graph convolution decoder to smoothen the meshes during upsampling and (ii) an optimisation-based refinement stage at inference to prevent self-penetrations. Through extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations, we show that our framework is able to produce realistic two-hand reconstructions and demonstrate the generalisation of synthetic-trained models to real data, as well as real-time AR/VR applications.

In this paper, we propose a novel method for joint entity and relation extraction from unstructured text by framing it as a conditional sequence generation problem. In contrast to conventional generative information extraction models that are left-to-right token-level generators, our approach is span-based. It generates a linearized graph where nodes represent text spans and edges represent relation triplets. Our method employs a transformer encoder-decoder architecture with pointing mechanism on a dynamic vocabulary of spans and relation types. Our model can capture the structural characteristics and boundaries of entities and relations through span representations while simultaneously grounding the generated output in the original text thanks to the pointing mechanism. Evaluation on benchmark datasets validates the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating competitive results. Code is available at https://github.com/urchade/ATG.

Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models represent each entity and relation of a knowledge graph (KG) with low-dimensional embedding vectors. These methods have recently been applied to KG link prediction and question answering over incomplete KGs (KGQA). KGEs typically create an embedding for each entity in the graph, which results in large model sizes on real-world graphs with millions of entities. For downstream tasks these atomic entity representations often need to be integrated into a multi stage pipeline, limiting their utility. We show that an off-the-shelf encoder-decoder Transformer model can serve as a scalable and versatile KGE model obtaining state-of-the-art results for KG link prediction and incomplete KG question answering. We achieve this by posing KG link prediction as a sequence-to-sequence task and exchange the triple scoring approach taken by prior KGE methods with autoregressive decoding. Such a simple but powerful method reduces the model size up to 98% compared to conventional KGE models while keeping inference time tractable. After finetuning this model on the task of KGQA over incomplete KGs, our approach outperforms baselines on multiple large-scale datasets without extensive hyperparameter tuning.

Extraction of building footprint polygons from remotely sensed data is essential for several urban understanding tasks such as reconstruction, navigation, and mapping. Despite significant progress in the area, extracting accurate polygonal building footprints remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduce Pix2Poly, an attention-based end-to-end trainable and differentiable deep neural network capable of directly generating explicit high-quality building footprints in a ring graph format. Pix2Poly employs a generative encoder-decoder transformer to produce a sequence of graph vertex tokens whose connectivity information is learned by an optimal matching network. Compared to previous graph learning methods, ours is a truly end-to-end trainable approach that extracts high-quality building footprints and road networks without requiring complicated, computationally intensive raster loss functions and intricate training pipelines. Upon evaluating Pix2Poly on several complex and challenging datasets, we report that Pix2Poly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in several vector shape quality metrics while being an entirely explicit method. Our code is available at https://github.com/yeshwanth95/Pix2Poly.

We present a new approach for generating 3D house wireframes with semantic enrichment using an autoregressive model. Unlike conventional generative models that independently process vertices, edges, and faces, our approach employs a unified wire-based representation for improved coherence in learning 3D wireframe structures. By re-ordering wire sequences based on semantic meanings, we facilitate seamless semantic integration during sequence generation. Our two-phase technique merges a graph-based autoencoder with a transformer-based decoder to learn latent geometric tokens and generate semantic-aware wireframes. Through iterative prediction and decoding during inference, our model produces detailed wireframes that can be easily segmented into distinct components, such as walls, roofs, and rooms, reflecting the semantic essence of the shape. Empirical results on a comprehensive house dataset validate the superior accuracy, novelty, and semantic fidelity of our model compared to existing generative models. More results and details can be found on https://vcc.tech/research/2024/3DWire.

Can we model non-Euclidean graphs as pure language or even Euclidean vectors while retaining their inherent information? The non-Euclidean property have posed a long term challenge in graph modeling. Despite recent GNN and Graphformer efforts encoding graphs as Euclidean vectors, recovering original graph from the vectors remains a challenge. We introduce GraphsGPT, featuring a Graph2Seq encoder that transforms non-Euclidean graphs into learnable graph words in a Euclidean space, along with a GraphGPT decoder that reconstructs the original graph from graph words to ensure information equivalence. We pretrain GraphsGPT on 100M molecules and yield some interesting findings: (1) Pretrained Graph2Seq excels in graph representation learning, achieving state-of-the-art results on 8/9 graph classification and regression tasks. (2) Pretrained GraphGPT serves as a strong graph generator, demonstrated by its ability to perform both unconditional and conditional graph generation. (3) Graph2Seq+GraphGPT enables effective graph mixup in the Euclidean space, overcoming previously known non-Euclidean challenge. (4) Our proposed novel edge-centric GPT pretraining task is effective in graph fields, underscoring its success in both representation and generation.

Detecting intrusions in network traffic is a challenging task, particularly under limited supervision and constantly evolving attack patterns. While recent works have leveraged graph neural networks for network intrusion detection, they often decouple representation learning from anomaly detection, limiting the utility of the embeddings for identifying attacks. We propose GraphIDS, a self-supervised intrusion detection model that unifies these two stages by learning local graph representations of normal communication patterns through a masked autoencoder. An inductive graph neural network embeds each flow with its local topological context to capture typical network behavior, while a Transformer-based encoder-decoder reconstructs these embeddings, implicitly learning global co-occurrence patterns via self-attention without requiring explicit positional information. During inference, flows with unusually high reconstruction errors are flagged as potential intrusions. This end-to-end framework ensures that embeddings are directly optimized for the downstream task, facilitating the recognition of malicious traffic. On diverse NetFlow benchmarks, GraphIDS achieves up to 99.98% PR-AUC and 99.61% macro F1-score, outperforming baselines by 5-25 percentage points.

We study how information propagates in decoder-only Transformers, which are the architectural backbone of most existing frontier large language models (LLMs). We rely on a theoretical signal propagation analysis -- specifically, we analyse the representations of the last token in the final layer of the Transformer, as this is the representation used for next-token prediction. Our analysis reveals a representational collapse phenomenon: we prove that certain distinct sequences of inputs to the Transformer can yield arbitrarily close representations in the final token. This effect is exacerbated by the low-precision floating-point formats frequently used in modern LLMs. As a result, the model is provably unable to respond to these sequences in different ways -- leading to errors in, e.g., tasks involving counting or copying. Further, we show that decoder-only Transformer language models can lose sensitivity to specific tokens in the input, which relates to the well-known phenomenon of over-squashing in graph neural networks. We provide empirical evidence supporting our claims on contemporary LLMs. Our theory also points to simple solutions towards ameliorating these issues.

Recent years have seen a growing interest in Scene Graph Generation (SGG), a comprehensive visual scene understanding task that aims to predict entity relationships using a relation encoder-decoder pipeline stacked on top of an object encoder-decoder backbone. Unfortunately, current SGG methods suffer from an information loss regarding the entities local-level cues during the relation encoding process. To mitigate this, we introduce the Vision rElation TransfOrmer (VETO), consisting of a novel local-level entity relation encoder. We further observe that many existing SGG methods claim to be unbiased, but are still biased towards either head or tail classes. To overcome this bias, we introduce a Mutually Exclusive ExperT (MEET) learning strategy that captures important relation features without bias towards head or tail classes. Experimental results on the VG and GQA datasets demonstrate that VETO + MEET boosts the predictive performance by up to 47 percentage over the state of the art while being 10 times smaller.

The very challenging task of learning solution operators of PDEs on arbitrary domains accurately and efficiently is of vital importance to engineering and industrial simulations. Despite the existence of many operator learning algorithms to approximate such PDEs, we find that accurate models are not necessarily computationally efficient and vice versa. We address this issue by proposing a geometry aware operator transformer (GAOT) for learning PDEs on arbitrary domains. GAOT combines novel multiscale attentional graph neural operator encoders and decoders, together with geometry embeddings and (vision) transformer processors to accurately map information about the domain and the inputs into a robust approximation of the PDE solution. Multiple innovations in the implementation of GAOT also ensure computational efficiency and scalability. We demonstrate this significant gain in both accuracy and efficiency of GAOT over several baselines on a large number of learning tasks from a diverse set of PDEs, including achieving state of the art performance on a large scale three-dimensional industrial CFD dataset.

In software development through integrated development environments (IDEs), code completion is one of the most widely used features. Nevertheless, majority of integrated development environments only support completion of methods and APIs, or arguments. In this paper, we introduce IntelliCode Compose - a general-purpose multilingual code completion tool which is capable of predicting sequences of code tokens of arbitrary types, generating up to entire lines of syntactically correct code. It leverages state-of-the-art generative transformer model trained on 1.2 billion lines of source code in Python, C#, JavaScript and TypeScript programming languages. IntelliCode Compose is deployed as a cloud-based web service. It makes use of client-side tree-based caching, efficient parallel implementation of the beam search decoder, and compute graph optimizations to meet edit-time completion suggestion requirements in the Visual Studio Code IDE and Azure Notebook. Our best model yields an average edit similarity of 86.7% and a perplexity of 1.82 for Python programming language.

This paper develops a graph reinforcement learning approach to online planning of the schedule and destinations of electric aircraft that comprise an urban air mobility (UAM) fleet operating across multiple vertiports. This fleet scheduling problem is formulated to consider time-varying demand, constraints related to vertiport capacity, aircraft capacity and airspace safety guidelines, uncertainties related to take-off delay, weather-induced route closures, and unanticipated aircraft downtime. Collectively, such a formulation presents greater complexity, and potentially increased realism, than in existing UAM fleet planning implementations. To address these complexities, a new policy architecture is constructed, primary components of which include: graph capsule conv-nets for encoding vertiport and aircraft-fleet states both abstracted as graphs; transformer layers encoding time series information on demand and passenger fare; and a Multi-head Attention-based decoder that uses the encoded information to compute the probability of selecting each available destination for an aircraft. Trained with Proximal Policy Optimization, this policy architecture shows significantly better performance in terms of daily averaged profits on unseen test scenarios involving 8 vertiports and 40 aircraft, when compared to a random baseline and genetic algorithm-derived optimal solutions, while being nearly 1000 times faster in execution than the latter.

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data driven forecast model developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). AIFS is based on a graph neural network (GNN) encoder and decoder, and a sliding window transformer processor, and is trained on ECMWF's ERA5 re-analysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) analyses. It has a flexible and modular design and supports several levels of parallelism to enable training on high-resolution input data. AIFS forecast skill is assessed by comparing its forecasts to NWP analyses and direct observational data. We show that AIFS produces highly skilled forecasts for upper-air variables, surface weather parameters and tropical cyclone tracks. AIFS is run four times daily alongside ECMWF's physics-based NWP model and forecasts are available to the public under ECMWF's open data policy.

A good initialization of deep learning models is essential since it can help them converge better and faster. However, pretraining large models is unaffordable for many researchers, which makes a desired prediction for initial parameters more necessary nowadays. Graph HyperNetworks (GHNs), one approach to predicting model parameters, have recently shown strong performance in initializing large vision models. Unfortunately, predicting parameters of very wide networks relies on copying small chunks of parameters multiple times and requires an extremely large number of parameters to support full prediction, which greatly hinders its adoption in practice. To address this limitation, we propose LoGAH (Low-rank GrAph Hypernetworks), a GHN with a low-rank parameter decoder that expands to significantly wider networks without requiring as excessive increase of parameters as in previous attempts. LoGAH allows us to predict the parameters of 774-million large neural networks in a memory-efficient manner. We show that vision and language models (i.e., ViT and GPT-2) initialized with LoGAH achieve better performance than those initialized randomly or using existing hypernetworks. Furthermore, we show promising transfer learning results w.r.t. training LoGAH on small datasets and using the predicted parameters to initialize for larger tasks. We provide the codes in https://github.com/Blackzxy/LoGAH .

We introduce MeshGPT, a new approach for generating triangle meshes that reflects the compactness typical of artist-created meshes, in contrast to dense triangle meshes extracted by iso-surfacing methods from neural fields. Inspired by recent advances in powerful large language models, we adopt a sequence-based approach to autoregressively generate triangle meshes as sequences of triangles. We first learn a vocabulary of latent quantized embeddings, using graph convolutions, which inform these embeddings of the local mesh geometry and topology. These embeddings are sequenced and decoded into triangles by a decoder, ensuring that they can effectively reconstruct the mesh. A transformer is then trained on this learned vocabulary to predict the index of the next embedding given previous embeddings. Once trained, our model can be autoregressively sampled to generate new triangle meshes, directly generating compact meshes with sharp edges, more closely imitating the efficient triangulation patterns of human-crafted meshes. MeshGPT demonstrates a notable improvement over state of the art mesh generation methods, with a 9% increase in shape coverage and a 30-point enhancement in FID scores across various categories.

This work proposes DyExpert, a dynamic graph model for cross-domain link prediction. It can explicitly model historical evolving processes to learn the evolution pattern of a specific downstream graph and subsequently make pattern-specific link predictions. DyExpert adopts a decode-only transformer and is capable of efficiently parallel training and inference by conditioned link generation that integrates both evolution modeling and link prediction. DyExpert is trained by extensive dynamic graphs across diverse domains, comprising 6M dynamic edges. Extensive experiments on eight untrained graphs demonstrate that DyExpert achieves state-of-the-art performance in cross-domain link prediction. Compared to the advanced baseline under the same setting, DyExpert achieves an average of 11.40% improvement Average Precision across eight graphs. More impressive, it surpasses the fully supervised performance of 8 advanced baselines on 6 untrained graphs.

The complex nature of big biological systems pushed some scientists to classify its understanding under the inconceivable missions. Different leveled challenges complicated this task, one of is the prediction of a protein's function. In recent years, significant progress has been made in this field through the development of various machine learning approaches. However, most existing methods formulate the task as a multi-classification problem, i.e assigning predefined labels to proteins. In this work, we propose a novel approach, Prot2Text, which predicts a protein function's in a free text style, moving beyond the conventional binary or categorical classifications. By combining Graph Neural Networks(GNNs) and Large Language Models(LLMs), in an encoder-decoder framework, our model effectively integrates diverse data types including proteins' sequences, structures, and textual annotations. This multimodal approach allows for a holistic representation of proteins' functions, enabling the generation of detailed and accurate descriptions. To evaluate our model, we extracted a multimodal protein dataset from SwissProt, and demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of Prot2Text. These results highlight the transformative impact of multimodal models, specifically the fusion of GNNs and LLMs, empowering researchers with powerful tools for more accurate prediction of proteins' functions. The code, the models and a demo will be publicly released.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have recently achieved strong results in semantic segmentation, yet their deployment on resource-constrained devices remains limited due to their high memory footprint and computational cost. Quantization offers an effective strategy to improve efficiency, but ViT-based segmentation models are notoriously fragile under low precision, as quantization errors accumulate across deep encoder-decoder pipelines. We introduce I-Segmenter, the first fully integer-only ViT segmentation framework. Building on the Segmenter architecture, I-Segmenter systematically replaces floating-point operations with integer-only counterparts. To further stabilize both training and inference, we propose lambda-ShiftGELU, a novel activation function that mitigates the limitations of uniform quantization in handling long-tailed activation distributions. In addition, we remove the L2 normalization layer and replace bilinear interpolation in the decoder with nearest neighbor upsampling, ensuring integer-only execution throughout the computational graph. Extensive experiments show that I-Segmenter achieves accuracy within a reasonable margin of its FP32 baseline (5.1 % on average), while reducing model size by up to 3.8x and enabling up to 1.2x faster inference with optimized runtimes. Notably, even in one-shot PTQ with a single calibration image, I-Segmenter delivers competitive accuracy, underscoring its practicality for real-world deployment.

Recent advances in natural language processing highlight two key factors for improving reasoning in large language models (LLMs): (i) allocating more test-time compute tends to help on harder problems but often introduces redundancy in the reasoning trace, and (ii) compute is most effective when reasoning is systematic and incremental, forming structured chains of thought (CoTs) akin to human problem-solving. To study these factors in isolation, we introduce a controlled setting based on shortest-path tasks in layered graphs. We train decoder-only transformers on question-trace-answer triples using a custom tokenizer, comparing models trained on optimal bottom-up dynamic programming traces with those trained on longer, valid traces involving backtracking. Surprisingly, with the same training-token budget, models trained on inefficient traces generalize better to unseen graphs. This benefit is not due to length alone-injecting arbitrary redundancy into reasoning traces fails to help and can even hurt performance. Instead, we find that generalization correlates with the model's confidence in next-token prediction, suggesting that long, coherent, and locally incremental traces make the training signal easier to optimize.

Long-term traffic prediction is highly challenging due to the complexity of traffic systems and the constantly changing nature of many impacting factors. In this paper, we focus on the spatio-temporal factors, and propose a graph multi-attention network (GMAN) to predict traffic conditions for time steps ahead at different locations on a road network graph. GMAN adapts an encoder-decoder architecture, where both the encoder and the decoder consist of multiple spatio-temporal attention blocks to model the impact of the spatio-temporal factors on traffic conditions. The encoder encodes the input traffic features and the decoder predicts the output sequence. Between the encoder and the decoder, a transform attention layer is applied to convert the encoded traffic features to generate the sequence representations of future time steps as the input of the decoder. The transform attention mechanism models the direct relationships between historical and future time steps that helps to alleviate the error propagation problem among prediction time steps. Experimental results on two real-world traffic prediction tasks (i.e., traffic volume prediction and traffic speed prediction) demonstrate the superiority of GMAN. In particular, in the 1 hour ahead prediction, GMAN outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 4% improvement in MAE measure. The source code is available at https://github.com/zhengchuanpan/GMAN.