Daily Papers

Reasoning is a core capability of large language models, yet understanding how they learn and perform multi-step reasoning remains an open problem. In this study, we explore how different architectures and training methods affect model multi-step reasoning capabilities within a cellular automata framework. By training on state sequences generated with random Boolean functions for random initial conditions to exclude memorization, we demonstrate that most neural architectures learn to abstract the underlying rules. While models achieve high accuracy in next-state prediction, their performance declines sharply if multi-step reasoning is required. We confirm that increasing model depth plays a crucial role for sequential computations. We demonstrate that an extension of the effective model depth with recurrence, memory, and test-time compute scaling substantially enhances reasoning capabilities.

The Instruction-Driven Game Engine (IDGE) project aims to democratize game development by enabling a large language model (LLM) to follow free-form game descriptions and generate game-play processes. The IDGE allows users to create games simply by natural language instructions, which significantly lowers the barrier for game development. We approach the learning process for IDGEs as a Next State Prediction task, wherein the model autoregressively predicts the game states given player actions. The computation of game states must be precise; otherwise, slight errors could corrupt the game-play experience. This is challenging because of the gap between stability and diversity. To address this, we train the IDGE in a curriculum manner that progressively increases its exposure to complex scenarios. Our initial progress lies in developing an IDGE for Poker, which not only supports a wide range of poker variants but also allows for highly individualized new poker games through natural language inputs. This work lays the groundwork for future advancements in transforming how games are created and played.

Recent successes in autoregressive (AR) generation models, such as the GPT series in natural language processing, have motivated efforts to replicate this success in visual tasks. Some works attempt to extend this approach to autonomous driving by building video-based world models capable of generating realistic future video sequences and predicting ego states. However, prior works tend to produce unsatisfactory results, as the classic GPT framework is designed to handle 1D contextual information, such as text, and lacks the inherent ability to model the spatial and temporal dynamics essential for video generation. In this paper, we present DrivingWorld, a GPT-style world model for autonomous driving, featuring several spatial-temporal fusion mechanisms. This design enables effective modeling of both spatial and temporal dynamics, facilitating high-fidelity, long-duration video generation. Specifically, we propose a next-state prediction strategy to model temporal coherence between consecutive frames and apply a next-token prediction strategy to capture spatial information within each frame. To further enhance generalization ability, we propose a novel masking strategy and reweighting strategy for token prediction to mitigate long-term drifting issues and enable precise control. Our work demonstrates the ability to produce high-fidelity and consistent video clips of over 40 seconds in duration, which is over 2 times longer than state-of-the-art driving world models. Experiments show that, in contrast to prior works, our method achieves superior visual quality and significantly more accurate controllable future video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/YvanYin/DrivingWorld.

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models demonstrate that visual signals can effectively complement sparse action supervisions. However, letting VLA directly predict high-dimensional visual states can distribute model capacity and incur prohibitive training cost, while compressing visual states into more compact supervisory signals inevitably incurs information bottlenecks. Moreover, existing methods often suffer from poor comprehension and reasoning capabilities due to the neglect of language supervision. This paper introduces Mantis, a novel framework featuring a Disentangled Visual Foresight (DVF) to tackle these issues. Specifically, Mantis decouples visual foresight prediction from the backbone with the combination of meta queries and a diffusion Transformer (DiT) head. With the current visual state provided to the DiT via a residual connection, a simple next-state prediction objective enables the meta queries to automatically capture the latent actions that delineate the visual trajectory, and hence boost the learning of explicit actions. The disentanglement reduces the burden of the VLA backbone, enabling it to maintain comprehension and reasoning capabilities through language supervision. Empirically, pretrained on human manipulation videos, robot demonstrations, and image-text pairs, Mantis achieves a 96.7% success rate on LIBERO benchmark after fine-tuning, surpassing powerful baselines while exhibiting high convergence speed. Real-world evaluations show that Mantis outperforms π_{0.5}, a leading open-source VLA model, particularly in instruction-following capability, generalization to unseen instructions, and reasoning ability. Code and weights are released to support the open-source community.

Training Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) agents via Reinforcement Learning (RL) faces critical challenges: environment-based RL requires costly interactions, while environment-free methods struggle with distribution shift and reward generalization. We propose an environment-free RL framework that decouples value estimation from policy optimization by leveraging a pretrained Value Environment Model (VEM). VEM predicts state-action values directly from offline data, distilling human-like priors about GUI interaction outcomes without requiring next-state prediction or environmental feedback. This avoids compounding errors and enhances resilience to UI changes by focusing on semantic reasoning (e.g., Does this action advance the user's goal?). The framework operates in two stages: (1) pretraining VEM to estimate long-term action utilities and (2) guiding policy exploration with frozen VEM signals, enabling layout-agnostic GUI automation. Evaluated on Android-in-the-Wild benchmarks, VEM achieves state-of-the-art performance in both offline and online settings, outperforming environment-free baselines significantly and matching environment-based approaches without interaction costs. Importantly, VEM demonstrates that semantic-aware value estimation can achieve comparable performance with online-trained methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as world models to enhance agent decision-making in digital environments by simulating future states and predicting action outcomes, potentially eliminating costly trial-and-error exploration. However, this capability is fundamentally limited by LLMs' tendency toward hallucination and their reliance on static training knowledge, which can lead to compounding errors that inhibit long-horizon simulations. To systematically investigate whether LLMs are appropriate for world modeling, we probe two core capabilities of world models--future state prediction and reward estimation--through three tasks: next-state identification, full-procedure planning alignment, and milestone transition recognition. Our analysis shows that while LLMs effectively capture immediate next states and identify meaningful state transitions, their performance rapidly degrades in full-procedure planning. This highlights LLMs' limitations in reliably modeling environment dynamics over long horizons. To address these limitations, we propose the Retrieval-augmented World Model (R-WoM), which grounds LLM simulations by incorporating factual, up-to-date knowledge retrieved from external tutorials. Experiments show that R-WoM achieves substantial improvements of up to 25.3% (OSWorld) and 18.1% (WebArena) compared to baselines, with particular advantages in longer-horizon simulations.

Recent advancements in image and video synthesis have opened up new promise in generative games. One particularly intriguing application is transforming characters from anime films into interactive, playable entities. This allows players to immerse themselves in the dynamic anime world as their favorite characters for life simulation through language instructions. Such games are defined as infinite game since they eliminate predetermined boundaries and fixed gameplay rules, where players can interact with the game world through open-ended language and experience ever-evolving storylines and environments. Recently, a pioneering approach for infinite anime life simulation employs large language models (LLMs) to translate multi-turn text dialogues into language instructions for image generation. However, it neglects historical visual context, leading to inconsistent gameplay. Furthermore, it only generates static images, failing to incorporate the dynamics necessary for an engaging gaming experience. In this work, we propose AnimeGamer, which is built upon Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to generate each game state, including dynamic animation shots that depict character movements and updates to character states, as illustrated in Figure 1. We introduce novel action-aware multimodal representations to represent animation shots, which can be decoded into high-quality video clips using a video diffusion model. By taking historical animation shot representations as context and predicting subsequent representations, AnimeGamer can generate games with contextual consistency and satisfactory dynamics. Extensive evaluations using both automated metrics and human evaluations demonstrate that AnimeGamer outperforms existing methods in various aspects of the gaming experience. Codes and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/TencentARC/AnimeGamer.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNN) are a class of bio-inspired neural networks that promise to bring low-power and low-latency inference to edge devices through asynchronous and sparse processing. However, being temporal models, SNNs depend heavily on expressive states to generate predictions on par with classical artificial neural networks (ANNs). These states converge only after long transient periods, and quickly decay without input data, leading to higher latency, power consumption, and lower accuracy. This work addresses this issue by initializing the state with an auxiliary ANN running at a low rate. The SNN then uses the state to generate predictions with high temporal resolution until the next initialization phase. Our hybrid ANN-SNN model thus combines the best of both worlds: It does not suffer from long state transients and state decay thanks to the ANN, and can generate predictions with high temporal resolution, low latency, and low power thanks to the SNN. We show for the task of event-based 2D and 3D human pose estimation that our method consumes 88% less power with only a 4% decrease in performance compared to its fully ANN counterparts when run at the same inference rate. Moreover, when compared to SNNs, our method achieves a 74% lower error. This research thus provides a new understanding of how ANNs and SNNs can be used to maximize their respective benefits.

Despite their capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) remain opaque with limited understanding of their internal representations. Current interpretability methods, such as direct logit attribution (DLA) and sparse autoencoders (SAEs), provide restricted insight due to limitations such as the model's output vocabulary or unclear feature names. This work introduces Hyperdimensional Probe, a novel paradigm for decoding information from the LLM vector space. It combines ideas from symbolic representations and neural probing to project the model's residual stream into interpretable concepts via Vector Symbolic Architectures (VSAs). This probe combines the strengths of SAEs and conventional probes while overcoming their key limitations. We validate our decoding paradigm with controlled input-completion tasks, probing the model's final state before next-token prediction on inputs spanning syntactic pattern recognition, key-value associations, and abstract inference. We further assess it in a question-answering setting, examining the state of the model both before and after text generation. Our experiments show that our probe reliably extracts meaningful concepts across varied LLMs, embedding sizes, and input domains, also helping identify LLM failures. Our work advances information decoding in LLM vector space, enabling extracting more informative, interpretable, and structured features from neural representations.

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

Long-context autoregressive modeling has significantly advanced language generation, but video generation still struggles to fully utilize extended temporal contexts. To investigate long-context video modeling, we introduce Frame AutoRegressive (FAR), a strong baseline for video autoregressive modeling. Just as language models learn causal dependencies between tokens (i.e., Token AR), FAR models temporal causal dependencies between continuous frames, achieving better convergence than Token AR and video diffusion transformers. Building on FAR, we observe that long-context vision modeling faces challenges due to visual redundancy. Existing RoPE lacks effective temporal decay for remote context and fails to extrapolate well to long video sequences. Additionally, training on long videos is computationally expensive, as vision tokens grow much faster than language tokens. To tackle these issues, we propose balancing locality and long-range dependency. We introduce FlexRoPE, an test-time technique that adds flexible temporal decay to RoPE, enabling extrapolation to 16x longer vision contexts. Furthermore, we propose long short-term context modeling, where a high-resolution short-term context window ensures fine-grained temporal consistency, while an unlimited long-term context window encodes long-range information using fewer tokens. With this approach, we can train on long video sequences with a manageable token context length. We demonstrate that FAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-video generation, providing a simple yet effective baseline for video autoregressive modeling.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

While next-token prediction is considered a promising path towards artificial general intelligence, it has struggled to excel in multimodal tasks, which are still dominated by diffusion models (e.g., Stable Diffusion) and compositional approaches (e.g., CLIP combined with LLMs). In this paper, we introduce Emu3, a new suite of state-of-the-art multimodal models trained solely with next-token prediction. By tokenizing images, text, and videos into a discrete space, we train a single transformer from scratch on a mixture of multimodal sequences. Emu3 outperforms several well-established task-specific models in both generation and perception tasks, surpassing flagship models such as SDXL and LLaVA-1.6, while eliminating the need for diffusion or compositional architectures. Emu3 is also capable of generating high-fidelity video via predicting the next token in a video sequence. We simplify complex multimodal model designs by converging on a singular focus: tokens, unlocking great potential for scaling both during training and inference. Our results demonstrate that next-token prediction is a promising path towards building general multimodal intelligence beyond language. We open-source key techniques and models to support further research in this direction.

We present TempoMaster, a novel framework that formulates long video generation as next-frame-rate prediction. Specifically, we first generate a low-frame-rate clip that serves as a coarse blueprint of the entire video sequence, and then progressively increase the frame rate to refine visual details and motion continuity. During generation, TempoMaster employs bidirectional attention within each frame-rate level while performing autoregression across frame rates, thus achieving long-range temporal coherence while enabling efficient and parallel synthesis. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TempoMaster establishes a new state-of-the-art in long video generation, excelling in both visual and temporal quality.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Autoregressive models for video generation typically operate frame-by-frame, extending next-token prediction from language to video's temporal dimension. We question that unlike word as token is universally agreed in language if frame is a appropriate prediction unit? To address this, we present VideoAR, a unified framework that supports a spectrum of prediction units including full frames, key-detail frames, multiscale refinements, and spatiotemporal cubes. Among these designs, we find model video generation using spatiotemporal cubes as prediction units, which allows autoregressive models to operate across both spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This approach eliminates the assumption that frames are the natural atomic units for video autoregression. We evaluate VideoAR across diverse prediction strategies, finding that cube-based prediction consistently delivers superior quality, speed, and temporal coherence. By removing the frame-by-frame constraint, our video generator surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on VBench while achieving faster inference and enabling seamless scaling to minute-long sequences. We hope this work will motivate rethinking sequence decomposition in video and other spatiotemporal domains.

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

Tracking Any Point (TAP) in a video is a challenging computer vision problem with many demonstrated applications in robotics, video editing, and 3D reconstruction. Existing methods for TAP rely heavily on complex tracking-specific inductive biases and heuristics, limiting their generality and potential for scaling. To address these challenges, we present TAPNext, a new approach that casts TAP as sequential masked token decoding. Our model is causal, tracks in a purely online fashion, and removes tracking-specific inductive biases. This enables TAPNext to run with minimal latency, and removes the temporal windowing required by many existing state of art trackers. Despite its simplicity, TAPNext achieves a new state-of-the-art tracking performance among both online and offline trackers. Finally, we present evidence that many widely used tracking heuristics emerge naturally in TAPNext through end-to-end training.

Next Location Prediction is a fundamental task in the study of human mobility, with wide-ranging applications in transportation planning, urban governance, and epidemic forecasting. In practice, when humans attempt to predict the next location in a trajectory, they often visualize the trajectory on a map and reason based on road connectivity and movement trends. However, the vast majority of existing next-location prediction models do not reason over maps in the way that humans do. Fortunately, the recent development of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has demonstrated strong capabilities in visual perception and even visual reasoning. This opens up a new possibility: by rendering both the road network and trajectory onto an image and leveraging the reasoning abilities of VLMs, we can enable models to perform trajectory inference in a human-like manner. To explore this idea, we first propose a method called Vision-Guided Location Search (VGLS), which evaluates whether a general-purpose VLM is capable of trajectory-based reasoning without modifying any of its internal parameters. Based on insights from the VGLS results, we further propose our main approach: VLMLocPredictor, which is composed of two stages: In the first stage, we design two Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) tasks that help the VLM understand road network and trajectory structures and acquire basic reasoning ability on such visual inputs. In the second stage, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Visual Map Feedback, enabling the model to self-improve its next-location prediction ability through interaction with the environment. Experiments conducted on datasets from four different cities show that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and exhibits superior cross-city generalization compared to other LLM-based approaches.

Denoising with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (D-JEPA), an autoregressive model, has demonstrated outstanding performance in class-conditional image generation. However, the application of next-token prediction in high-resolution text-to-image generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce D-JEPAcdotT2I, an extension of D-JEPA incorporating flow matching loss, designed to enable data-efficient continuous resolution learning. D-JEPAcdotT2I leverages a multimodal visual transformer to effectively integrate textual and visual features and adopts Visual Rotary Positional Embedding (VoPE) to facilitate continuous resolution learning. Furthermore, we devise a data feedback mechanism that significantly enhances data utilization efficiency. For the first time, we achieve state-of-the-art high-resolution image synthesis via next-token prediction. The experimental code and pretrained models will be open-sourced at https://d-jepa.github.io/t2i.

We explore how to enhance next-token prediction models to perform in-context imitation learning on a real robot, where the robot executes new tasks by interpreting contextual information provided during the input phase, without updating its underlying policy parameters. We propose In-Context Robot Transformer (ICRT), a causal transformer that performs autoregressive prediction on sensorimotor trajectories without relying on any linguistic data or reward function. This formulation enables flexible and training-free execution of new tasks at test time, achieved by prompting the model with sensorimotor trajectories of the new task composing of image observations, actions and states tuples, collected through human teleoperation. Experiments with a Franka Emika robot demonstrate that the ICRT can adapt to new tasks specified by prompts, even in environment configurations that differ from both the prompt and the training data. In a multitask environment setup, ICRT significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art next-token prediction models in robotics on generalizing to unseen tasks. Code, checkpoints and data are available on https://icrt.dev/

This paper presents DetailFlow, a coarse-to-fine 1D autoregressive (AR) image generation method that models images through a novel next-detail prediction strategy. By learning a resolution-aware token sequence supervised with progressively degraded images, DetailFlow enables the generation process to start from the global structure and incrementally refine details. This coarse-to-fine 1D token sequence aligns well with the autoregressive inference mechanism, providing a more natural and efficient way for the AR model to generate complex visual content. Our compact 1D AR model achieves high-quality image synthesis with significantly fewer tokens than previous approaches, i.e. VAR/VQGAN. We further propose a parallel inference mechanism with self-correction that accelerates generation speed by approximately 8x while reducing accumulation sampling error inherent in teacher-forcing supervision. On the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, our method achieves 2.96 gFID with 128 tokens, outperforming VAR (3.3 FID) and FlexVAR (3.05 FID), which both require 680 tokens in their AR models. Moreover, due to the significantly reduced token count and parallel inference mechanism, our method runs nearly 2x faster inference speed compared to VAR and FlexVAR. Extensive experimental results demonstrate DetailFlow's superior generation quality and efficiency compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Text-guided image editing involves modifying a source image based on a language instruction and, typically, requires changes to only small local regions. However, existing approaches generate the entire target image rather than selectively regenerate only the intended editing areas. This results in (1) unnecessary computational costs and (2) a bias toward reconstructing non-editing regions, which compromises the quality of the intended edits. To resolve these limitations, we propose to formulate image editing as Next Editing-token Prediction (NEP) based on autoregressive image generation, where only regions that need to be edited are regenerated, thus avoiding unintended modification to the non-editing areas. To enable any-region editing, we propose to pre-train an any-order autoregressive text-to-image (T2I) model. Once trained, it is capable of zero-shot image editing and can be easily adapted to NEP for image editing, which achieves a new state-of-the-art on widely used image editing benchmarks. Moreover, our model naturally supports test-time scaling (TTS) through iteratively refining its generation in a zero-shot manner. The project page is: https://nep-bigai.github.io/

GPT has shown its remarkable success in natural language processing. However, the language sequence is not sufficient to describe spatial-temporal details in the visual world. Alternatively, the video sequence is good at capturing such details. Motivated by this fact, we propose a concise Video-GPT in this paper by treating video as new language for visual world modeling. By analogy to next token prediction in GPT, we introduce a novel next clip diffusion paradigm for pretraining Video-GPT. Different from the previous works, this distinct paradigm allows Video-GPT to tackle both short-term generation and long-term prediction, by autoregressively denoising the noisy clip according to the clean clips in the history. Extensive experiments show our Video-GPT achieves the state-of-the-art performance on video prediction, which is the key factor towards world modeling (Physics-IQ Benchmark: Video-GPT 34.97 vs. Kling 23.64 vs. Wan 20.89). Moreover, it can be well adapted on 6 mainstream video tasks in both video generation and understanding, showing its great generalization capacity in downstream. The project page is at https://Video-GPT.github.io.

Self-supervised learning methods overcome the key bottleneck for building more capable AI: limited availability of labeled data. However, one of the drawbacks of self-supervised architectures is that the representations that they learn are implicit and it is hard to extract meaningful information about the encoded world states, such as 3D structure of the visual scene encoded in a depth map. Moreover, in the visual domain such representations only rarely undergo evaluations that may be critical for downstream tasks, such as vision for autonomous cars. Herein, we propose a framework for evaluating visual representations for illumination invariance in the context of depth perception. We develop a new predictive coding-based architecture and a hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method. We propose a novel architecture that extends the predictive coding approach: PRedictive Lateral bottom-Up and top-Down Encoder-decoder Network (PreludeNet), which explicitly learns to infer and predict depth from video frames. In PreludeNet, the encoder's stack of predictive coding layers is trained in a self-supervised manner, while the predictive decoder is trained in a supervised manner to infer or predict the depth. We evaluate the robustness of our model on a new synthetic dataset, in which lighting conditions (such as overall illumination, and effect of shadows) can be be parametrically adjusted while keeping all other aspects of the world constant. PreludeNet achieves both competitive depth inference performance and next frame prediction accuracy. We also show how this new network architecture, coupled with the hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method, achieves balance between the said performance and invariance to changes in lighting. The proposed framework for evaluating visual representations can be extended to diverse task domains and invariance tests.

Session-based recommender systems capture the short-term interest of a user within a session. Session contexts (i.e., a user's high-level interests or intents within a session) are not explicitly given in most datasets, and implicitly inferring session context as an aggregation of item-level attributes is crude. In this paper, we propose ISCON, which implicitly contextualizes sessions. ISCON first generates implicit contexts for sessions by creating a session-item graph, learning graph embeddings, and clustering to assign sessions to contexts. ISCON then trains a session context predictor and uses the predicted contexts' embeddings to enhance the next-item prediction accuracy. Experiments on four datasets show that ISCON has superior next-item prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art models. A case study of ISCON on the Reddit dataset confirms that assigned session contexts are unique and meaningful.

The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model.

Short-term action anticipation (STA) in first-person videos is a challenging task that involves understanding the next active object interactions and predicting future actions. Existing action anticipation methods have primarily focused on utilizing features extracted from video clips, but often overlooked the importance of objects and their interactions. To this end, we propose a novel approach that applies a guided attention mechanism between the objects, and the spatiotemporal features extracted from video clips, enhancing the motion and contextual information, and further decoding the object-centric and motion-centric information to address the problem of STA in egocentric videos. Our method, GANO (Guided Attention for Next active Objects) is a multi-modal, end-to-end, single transformer-based network. The experimental results performed on the largest egocentric dataset demonstrate that GANO outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods for the prediction of the next active object label, its bounding box location, the corresponding future action, and the time to contact the object. The ablation study shows the positive contribution of the guided attention mechanism compared to other fusion methods. Moreover, it is possible to improve the next active object location and class label prediction results of GANO by just appending the learnable object tokens with the region of interest embeddings.

While language models have become impactful in many real-world applications, video generation remains largely confined to entertainment. Motivated by video's inherent capacity to demonstrate physical-world information that is difficult to convey through language alone (e.g., imagine teaching someone to tie a tie using only text), we identify an underutilized opportunity to extend video as a new answer modality for Next-Event Prediction (NEP), formalized as Video-Next-Event Prediction (VNEP). While the established NEP task takes a video with a procedural or predictive question as input to predict the next event in text, VNEP requires dynamic video responses. This shift from telling to showing unlocks more intuitive and customized answers for procedural learning and creative exploration. However, this task remains challenging for existing models, as it demands an understanding of multimodal input, instruction-conditioned reasoning, and the generation of video with visual and semantic consistency. To address this, we introduce VANS, a model that leverages reinforcement learning to align a Vision-Language Model (VLM) with a Video Diffusion Model (VDM) for VNEP. The core of VANS is our proposed Joint-GRPO that orchestrates the VLM and VDM to function as a unit. Driven by a shared reward on their respective output, it optimizes the VLM to produce captions that are both accurate and friendly to visualize, while guiding the VDM to generate videos that are faithful to these captions and the input visual context. To enable this learning, we craft VANS-Data-100K, a dedicated dataset for the VNEP task. Experiments on procedural and predictive benchmarks demonstrate that VANS achieves state-of-the-art performance in both video event prediction and visualization. Codes are released in https://github.com/KlingTeam/VANS.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Self-supervised learning has brought about a revolutionary paradigm shift in various computing domains, including NLP, vision, and biology. Recent approaches involve pre-training transformer models on vast amounts of unlabeled data, serving as a starting point for efficiently solving downstream tasks. In the realm of reinforcement learning, researchers have recently adapted these approaches by developing models pre-trained on expert trajectories, enabling them to address a wide range of tasks, from robotics to recommendation systems. However, existing methods mostly rely on intricate pre-training objectives tailored to specific downstream applications. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation of models we refer to as Pretrained Action-State Transformer Agents (PASTA). Our study uses a unified methodology and covers an extensive set of general downstream tasks including behavioral cloning, offline RL, sensor failure robustness, and dynamics change adaptation. Our goal is to systematically compare various design choices and provide valuable insights to practitioners for building robust models. Key highlights of our study include tokenization at the action and state component level, using fundamental pre-training objectives like next token prediction, training models across diverse domains simultaneously, and using parameter efficient fine-tuning (PEFT). The developed models in our study contain fewer than 10 million parameters and the application of PEFT enables fine-tuning of fewer than 10,000 parameters during downstream adaptation, allowing a broad community to use these models and reproduce our experiments. We hope that this study will encourage further research into the use of transformers with first-principles design choices to represent RL trajectories and contribute to robust policy learning.

Recent research has demonstrated the potential of deep neural networks (DNNs) to accurately predict wildfire spread on a given day based upon high-dimensional explanatory data from a single preceding day, or from a time series of T preceding days. For the first time, we investigate a large number of existing data-driven wildfire modeling strategies under controlled conditions, revealing the best modeling strategies and resulting in models that achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy for both single-day and multi-day input scenarios, as evaluated on a large public benchmark for next-day wildfire spread, termed the WildfireSpreadTS (WSTS) benchmark. Consistent with prior work, we found that models using time-series input obtained the best overall accuracy, suggesting this is an important future area of research. Furthermore, we create a new benchmark, WSTS+, by incorporating four additional years of historical wildfire data into the WSTS benchmark. Our benchmark doubles the number of unique years of historical data, expands its geographic scope, and, to our knowledge, represents the largest public benchmark for time-series-based wildfire spread prediction.

Recent advancements in unified multimodal understanding and visual generation (or multimodal generation) models have been hindered by their quadratic computational complexity and dependence on large-scale training data. We present OmniMamba, the first linear-architecture-based multimodal generation model that generates both text and images through a unified next-token prediction paradigm. The model fully leverages Mamba-2's high computational and memory efficiency, extending its capabilities from text generation to multimodal generation. To address the data inefficiency of existing unified models, we propose two key innovations: (1) decoupled vocabularies to guide modality-specific generation, and (2) task-specific LoRA for parameter-efficient adaptation. Furthermore, we introduce a decoupled two-stage training strategy to mitigate data imbalance between two tasks. Equipped with these techniques, OmniMamba achieves competitive performance with JanusFlow while surpassing Show-o across benchmarks, despite being trained on merely 2M image-text pairs, which is 1,000 times fewer than Show-o. Notably, OmniMamba stands out with outstanding inference efficiency, achieving up to a 119.2 times speedup and 63% GPU memory reduction for long-sequence generation compared to Transformer-based counterparts. Code and models are released at https://github.com/hustvl/OmniMamba

Inverse design of solid-state materials with desired properties represents a formidable challenge in materials science. Although recent generative models have demonstrated potential, their adoption has been hindered by limitations such as inefficiency, architectural constraints and restricted open-source availability. The representation of crystal structures using the SLICES (Simplified Line-Input Crystal-Encoding System) notation as a string of characters enables the use of state-of-the-art natural language processing models, such as Transformers, for crystal design. Drawing inspiration from the success of GPT models in generating coherent text, we trained a generative Transformer on the next-token prediction task to generate solid-state materials with targeted properties. We demonstrate MatterGPT's capability to generate de novo crystal structures with targeted single properties, including both lattice-insensitive (formation energy) and lattice-sensitive (band gap) properties. Furthermore, we extend MatterGPT to simultaneously target multiple properties, addressing the complex challenge of multi-objective inverse design of crystals. Our approach showcases high validity, uniqueness, and novelty in generated structures, as well as the ability to generate materials with properties beyond the training data distribution. This work represents a significant step forward in computational materials discovery, offering a powerful and open tool for designing materials with tailored properties for various applications in energy, electronics, and beyond.

While state-of-the-art language models achieve impressive results through next-token prediction, they have inherent limitations such as the inability to revise already generated tokens. This has prompted exploration of alternative approaches such as discrete diffusion. However, masked diffusion, which has emerged as a popular choice due to its simplicity and effectiveness, reintroduces this inability to revise words. To overcome this, we generalize masked diffusion and derive the theoretical backbone of a family of general interpolating discrete diffusion (GIDD) processes offering greater flexibility in the design of the noising processes. Leveraging a novel diffusion ELBO, we achieve compute-matched state-of-the-art performance in diffusion language modeling. Exploiting GIDD's flexibility, we explore a hybrid approach combining masking and uniform noise, leading to improved sample quality and unlocking the ability for the model to correct its own mistakes, an area where autoregressive models notoriously have struggled. Our code and models are open-source: https://github.com/dvruette/gidd/

We introduce LlamaGen, a new family of image generation models that apply original ``next-token prediction'' paradigm of large language models to visual generation domain. It is an affirmative answer to whether vanilla autoregressive models, e.g., Llama, without inductive biases on visual signals can achieve state-of-the-art image generation performance if scaling properly. We reexamine design spaces of image tokenizers, scalability properties of image generation models, and their training data quality. The outcome of this exploration consists of: (1) An image tokenizer with downsample ratio of 16, reconstruction quality of 0.94 rFID and codebook usage of 97% on ImageNet benchmark. (2) A series of class-conditional image generation models ranging from 111M to 3.1B parameters, achieving 2.18 FID on ImageNet 256x256 benchmarks, outperforming the popular diffusion models such as LDM, DiT. (3) A text-conditional image generation model with 775M parameters, from two-stage training on LAION-COCO and high aesthetics quality images, demonstrating competitive performance of visual quality and text alignment. (4) We verify the effectiveness of LLM serving frameworks in optimizing the inference speed of image generation models and achieve 326% - 414% speedup. We release all models and codes to facilitate open-source community of visual generation and multimodal foundation models.

In practical settings, differentially private Federated learning (DP-FL) is the dominant method for training models from private, on-device client data. Recent work has suggested that DP-FL may be enhanced or outperformed by methods that use DP synthetic data (Wu et al., 2024; Hou et al., 2024). The primary algorithms for generating DP synthetic data for FL applications require careful prompt engineering based on public information and/or iterative private client feedback. Our key insight is that the private client feedback collected by prior DP synthetic data methods (Hou et al., 2024; Xie et al., 2024) can be viewed as an RL (reinforcement learning) reward. Our algorithm, Policy Optimization for Private Data (POPri) harnesses client feedback using policy optimization algorithms such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to fine-tune LLMs to generate high-quality DP synthetic data. To evaluate POPri, we release LargeFedBench, a new federated text benchmark for uncontaminated LLM evaluations on federated client data. POPri substantially improves the utility of DP synthetic data relative to prior work on LargeFedBench datasets and an existing benchmark from Xie et al. (2024). POPri closes the gap between next-token prediction accuracy in the fully-private and non-private settings by up to 58%, compared to 28% for prior synthetic data methods, and 3% for state-of-the-art DP federated learning methods. The code and data are available at https://github.com/meiyuw/POPri.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at tasks like language processing, strategy games, and reasoning but struggle to build generalizable internal representations essential for adaptive decision-making in agents. For agents to effectively navigate complex environments, they must construct reliable world models. While LLMs perform well on specific benchmarks, they often fail to generalize, leading to brittle representations that limit their real-world effectiveness. Understanding how LLMs build internal world models is key to developing agents capable of consistent, adaptive behavior across tasks. We analyze OthelloGPT, a GPT-based model trained on Othello gameplay, as a controlled testbed for studying representation learning. Despite being trained solely on next-token prediction with random valid moves, OthelloGPT shows meaningful layer-wise progression in understanding board state and gameplay. Early layers capture static attributes like board edges, while deeper layers reflect dynamic tile changes. To interpret these representations, we compare Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) with linear probes, finding that SAEs offer more robust, disentangled insights into compositional features, whereas linear probes mainly detect features useful for classification. We use SAEs to decode features related to tile color and tile stability, a previously unexamined feature that reflects complex gameplay concepts like board control and long-term planning. We study the progression of linear probe accuracy and tile color using both SAE's and linear probes to compare their effectiveness at capturing what the model is learning. Although we begin with a smaller language model, OthelloGPT, this study establishes a framework for understanding the internal representations learned by GPT models, transformers, and LLMs more broadly. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/ALT-JS/OthelloSAE.

In recent years, image synthesis has achieved remarkable advancements, enabling diverse applications in content creation, virtual reality, and beyond. We introduce a novel approach to image generation using Auto-Regressive (AR) modeling, which leverages a next-detail prediction strategy for enhanced fidelity and scalability. While AR models have achieved transformative success in language modeling, replicating this success in vision tasks has presented unique challenges due to the inherent spatial dependencies in images. Our proposed method addresses these challenges by iteratively adding finer details to an image compositionally, constructing it as a hierarchical combination of base and detail image factors. This strategy is shown to be more effective than the conventional next-token prediction and even surpasses the state-of-the-art next-scale prediction approaches. A key advantage of this method is its scalability to higher resolutions without requiring full model retraining, making it a versatile solution for high-resolution image generation.

This paper introduces the counter-intuitive generalization results of overfitting pre-trained large language models (LLMs) on very small datasets. In the setting of open-ended text generation, it is well-documented that LLMs tend to generate repetitive and dull sequences, a phenomenon that is especially apparent when generating using greedy decoding. This issue persists even with state-of-the-art LLMs containing billions of parameters, trained via next-token prediction on large datasets. We find that by further fine-tuning these models to achieve a near-zero training loss on a small set of samples -- a process we refer to as hyperfitting -- the long-sequence generative capabilities are greatly enhanced. Greedy decoding with these Hyperfitted models even outperform Top-P sampling over long-sequences, both in terms of diversity and human preferences. This phenomenon extends to LLMs of various sizes, different domains, and even autoregressive image generation. We further find this phenomena to be distinctly different from that of Grokking and double descent. Surprisingly, our experiments indicate that hyperfitted models rarely fall into repeating sequences they were trained on, and even explicitly blocking these sequences results in high-quality output. All hyperfitted models produce extremely low-entropy predictions, often allocating nearly all probability to a single token.

The improved competence of generative models can help building multi-modal virtual assistants that leverage modalities beyond language. By observing humans performing multi-step tasks, one can build assistants that have situational awareness of actions and tasks being performed, enabling them to cater assistance based on this understanding. In this paper, we develop a Context-aware Instructional Task Assistant with Multi-modal Large Language Models (InsTALL) that leverages an online visual stream (e.g. a user's screen share or video recording) and responds in real-time to user queries related to the task at hand. To enable useful assistance, InsTALL 1) trains a multi-modal model on task videos and paired textual data, and 2) automatically extracts task graph from video data and leverages it at training and inference time. We show InsTALL achieves state-of-the-art performance across proposed sub-tasks considered for multimodal activity understanding -- task recognition (TR), action recognition (AR), next action prediction (AP), and plan prediction (PP) -- and outperforms existing baselines on two novel sub-tasks related to automatic error identification.

The remarkable success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has extended to the multimodal domain, achieving outstanding performance in image understanding and generation. Recent efforts to develop unified Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) that integrate these capabilities have shown promising results. However, existing approaches often involve complex designs in model architecture or training pipeline, increasing the difficulty of model training and scaling. In this paper, we propose SynerGen-VL, a simple yet powerful encoder-free MLLM capable of both image understanding and generation. To address challenges identified in existing encoder-free unified MLLMs, we introduce the token folding mechanism and the vision-expert-based progressive alignment pretraining strategy, which effectively support high-resolution image understanding while reducing training complexity. After being trained on large-scale mixed image-text data with a unified next-token prediction objective, SynerGen-VL achieves or surpasses the performance of existing encoder-free unified MLLMs with comparable or smaller parameter sizes, and narrows the gap with task-specific state-of-the-art models, highlighting a promising path toward future unified MLLMs. Our code and models shall be released.

Modern machine learning requires system designers to specify aspects of the learning pipeline, such as losses, architectures, and optimizers. Meta-learning, or learning-to-learn, instead aims to learn those aspects, and promises to unlock greater capabilities with less manual effort. One particularly ambitious goal of meta-learning is to train general-purpose in-context learning algorithms from scratch, using only black-box models with minimal inductive bias. Such a model takes in training data, and produces test-set predictions across a wide range of problems, without any explicit definition of an inference model, training loss, or optimization algorithm. In this paper we show that Transformers and other black-box models can be meta-trained to act as general-purpose in-context learners. We characterize transitions between algorithms that generalize, algorithms that memorize, and algorithms that fail to meta-train at all, induced by changes in model size, number of tasks, and meta-optimization. We further show that the capabilities of meta-trained algorithms are bottlenecked by the accessible state size (memory) determining the next prediction, unlike standard models which are thought to be bottlenecked by parameter count. Finally, we propose practical interventions such as biasing the training distribution that improve the meta-training and meta-generalization of general-purpose in-context learning algorithms.

To act in the world, a model must name what it sees and know where it is in 3D. Today's vision-language models (VLMs) excel at open-ended 2D description and grounding, yet multi-object 3D detection remains largely missing from the VLM toolbox. We present LocateAnything3D, a VLM-native recipe that casts 3D detection as a next-token prediction problem. The key is a short, explicit Chain-of-Sight (CoS) sequence that mirrors how human reason from images: find an object in 2D, then infer its distance, size, and pose. The decoder first emits 2D detections as a visual chain-of-thought, then predicts 3D boxes under an easy-to-hard curriculum: across objects, a near-to-far order reduces early ambiguity and matches ego-centric utility; within each object, a center-from-camera, dimensions, and rotation factorization ranks information by stability and learnability. This VLM-native interface preserves open-vocabulary and visual-prompting capability without specialized heads. On the challenging Omni3D benchmark, our model achieves state-of-the-art results, with 49.89 AP_3D, surpassing the previous best by +15.51 absolute improvement even when the baseline is given ground-truth 2D boxes. It also generalizes zero-shot to held-out categories with strong robustness. By turning 3D detection into a disciplined next-token problem, LocateAnything3D offers a practical foundation for models to perceive in 3D.

Large Language Models (LLM) are usually fine-tuned to participate in dyadic or two-party dialogues, which can not adapt well to multi-party dialogues (MPD), which hinders their applications in such scenarios including multi-personal meetings, discussions and daily communication. Previous LLM-based researches mainly focus on the multi-agent framework, while their base LLMs are still pairwisely fine-tuned. In this work, we design a multi-party fine-tuning framework (MuPaS) for LLMs on the multi-party dialogue datasets, and prove such a straightforward framework can let the LLM align with the multi-party conversation style efficiently and effectively. We also design two training strategies which can convert MuPaS into the MPD simulator. Substantial experiments show that MuPaS can achieve state-of-the-art multi-party response, higher accuracy of the-next-speaker prediction, higher human and automatic evaluated utterance qualities, and can even generate reasonably with out-of-distribution scene, topic and role descriptions. The MuPaS framework bridges the LLM training with more complicated multi-party applications, such as conversation generation, virtual rehearsal or meta-universe.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently gained much attention in building autonomous agents. However, the performance of current LLM-based web agents in long-horizon tasks is far from optimal, often yielding errors such as repeatedly buying a non-refundable flight ticket. By contrast, humans can avoid such an irreversible mistake, as we have an awareness of the potential outcomes (e.g., losing money) of our actions, also known as the "world model". Motivated by this, our study first starts with preliminary analyses, confirming the absence of world models in current LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, etc.). Then, we present a World-model-augmented (WMA) web agent, which simulates the outcomes of its actions for better decision-making. To overcome the challenges in training LLMs as world models predicting next observations, such as repeated elements across observations and long HTML inputs, we propose a transition-focused observation abstraction, where the prediction objectives are free-form natural language descriptions exclusively highlighting important state differences between time steps. Experiments on WebArena and Mind2Web show that our world models improve agents' policy selection without training and demonstrate our agents' cost- and time-efficiency compared to recent tree-search-based agents.

Recent studies have shown promising results on utilizing pre-trained image-language models for video question answering. While these image-language models can efficiently bootstrap the representation learning of video-language models, they typically concatenate uniformly sampled video frames as visual inputs without explicit language-aware, temporal modeling. When only a portion of a video input is relevant to the language query, such uniform frame sampling can often lead to missing important visual cues. Although humans often find a video moment to focus on and rewind the moment to answer questions, training a query-aware video moment localizer often requires expensive annotations and high computational costs. To address this issue, we propose Self-Chained Video Localization-Answering (SeViLA), a novel framework that leverages a single image-language model (BLIP-2) to tackle both temporal keyframe localization and QA on videos. SeViLA framework consists of two modules: Localizer and Answerer, where both are parameter-efficiently fine-tuned from BLIP-2. We chain these modules for cascaded inference and self-refinement. First, in the forward chain, the Localizer finds multiple language-aware keyframes in a video, which the Answerer uses to predict the answer. Second, in the reverse chain, the Answerer generates keyframe pseudo-labels to refine the Localizer, alleviating the need for expensive video moment localization annotations. SeViLA outperforms several strong baselines/previous works on five video QA and event prediction tasks, and achieves the state-of-the-art in both fine-tuning (NExT-QA, STAR) and zero-shot (NExT-QA, STAR, How2QA, VLEP) settings. We show a comprehensive analysis, e.g., the impact of Localizer, comparisons of Localizer with other temporal localization models, pre-training/self-refinement of Localizer, and varying the number of keyframes.

Large decoder-only language models (LLMs) are the state-of-the-art models on most of today's NLP tasks and benchmarks. Yet, the community is only slowly adopting these models for text embedding tasks, which require rich contextualized representations. In this work, we introduce LLM2Vec, a simple unsupervised approach that can transform any decoder-only LLM into a strong text encoder. LLM2Vec consists of three simple steps: 1) enabling bidirectional attention, 2) masked next token prediction, and 3) unsupervised contrastive learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LLM2Vec by applying it to 3 popular LLMs ranging from 1.3B to 7B parameters and evaluate the transformed models on English word- and sequence-level tasks. We outperform encoder-only models by a large margin on word-level tasks and reach a new unsupervised state-of-the-art performance on the Massive Text Embeddings Benchmark (MTEB). Moreover, when combining LLM2Vec with supervised contrastive learning, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on MTEB among models that train only on publicly available data. Our strong empirical results and extensive analysis demonstrate that LLMs can be effectively transformed into universal text encoders in a parameter-efficient manner without the need for expensive adaptation or synthetic GPT-4 generated data.

We present GrasMolmo, a generalizable open-vocabulary task-oriented grasping (TOG) model. GraspMolmo predicts semantically appropriate, stable grasps conditioned on a natural language instruction and a single RGB-D frame. For instance, given "pour me some tea", GraspMolmo selects a grasp on a teapot handle rather than its body. Unlike prior TOG methods, which are limited by small datasets, simplistic language, and uncluttered scenes, GraspMolmo learns from PRISM, a novel large-scale synthetic dataset of 379k samples featuring cluttered environments and diverse, realistic task descriptions. We fine-tune the Molmo visual-language model on this data, enabling GraspMolmo to generalize to novel open-vocabulary instructions and objects. In challenging real-world evaluations, GraspMolmo achieves state-of-the-art results, with a 70% prediction success on complex tasks, compared to the 35% achieved by the next best alternative. GraspMolmo also successfully demonstrates the ability to predict semantically correct bimanual grasps zero-shot. We release our synthetic dataset, code, model, and benchmarks to accelerate research in task-semantic robotic manipulation, which, along with videos, are available at https://abhaybd.github.io/GraspMolmo/.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Controllable scene generation could reduce the cost of diverse data collection substantially for autonomous driving. Prior works formulate the traffic layout generation as predictive progress, either by denoising entire sequences at once or by iteratively predicting the next frame. However, full sequence denoising hinders online reaction, while the latter's short-sighted next-frame prediction lacks precise goal-state guidance. Further, the learned model struggles to generate complex or challenging scenarios due to a large number of safe and ordinal driving behaviors from open datasets. To overcome these, we introduce Nexus, a decoupled scene generation framework that improves reactivity and goal conditioning by simulating both ordinal and challenging scenarios from fine-grained tokens with independent noise states. At the core of the decoupled pipeline is the integration of a partial noise-masking training strategy and a noise-aware schedule that ensures timely environmental updates throughout the denoising process. To complement challenging scenario generation, we collect a dataset consisting of complex corner cases. It covers 540 hours of simulated data, including high-risk interactions such as cut-in, sudden braking, and collision. Nexus achieves superior generation realism while preserving reactivity and goal orientation, with a 40% reduction in displacement error. We further demonstrate that Nexus improves closed-loop planning by 20% through data augmentation and showcase its capability in safety-critical data generation.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

Using prompts to utilize language models to perform various downstream tasks, also known as prompt-based learning or prompt-learning, has lately gained significant success in comparison to the pre-train and fine-tune paradigm. Nonetheless, virtually all prompt-based methods are token-level, meaning they all utilize GPT's left-to-right language model or BERT's masked language model to perform cloze-style tasks. In this paper, we attempt to accomplish several NLP tasks in the zero-shot scenario using a BERT original pre-training task abandoned by RoBERTa and other models--Next Sentence Prediction (NSP). Unlike token-level techniques, our sentence-level prompt-based method NSP-BERT does not need to fix the length of the prompt or the position to be predicted, allowing it to handle tasks such as entity linking with ease. Based on the characteristics of NSP-BERT, we offer several quick building templates for various downstream tasks. We suggest a two-stage prompt method for word sense disambiguation tasks in particular. Our strategies for mapping the labels significantly enhance the model's performance on sentence pair tasks. On the FewCLUE benchmark, our NSP-BERT outperforms other zero-shot methods on most of these tasks and comes close to the few-shot methods.

We introduce the "Belief State Transformer", a next-token predictor that takes both a prefix and suffix as inputs, with a novel objective of predicting both the next token for the prefix and the previous token for the suffix. The Belief State Transformer effectively learns to solve challenging problems that conventional forward-only transformers struggle with, in a domain-independent fashion. Key to this success is learning a compact belief state that captures all relevant information necessary for accurate predictions. Empirical ablations show that each component of the model is essential in difficult scenarios where standard Transformers fall short. For the task of story writing with known prefixes and suffixes, our approach outperforms the Fill-in-the-Middle method for reaching known goals and demonstrates improved performance even when the goals are unknown. Altogether, the Belief State Transformer enables more efficient goal-conditioned decoding, better test-time inference, and high-quality text representations on small scale problems. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/belief-state-transformer

The rapid expansion of mobile internet has resulted in a substantial increase in user-generated content (UGC) images, thereby making the thorough assessment of UGC images both urgent and essential. Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in image quality assessment (IQA) and image aesthetic assessment (IAA). Despite this progress, effectively scoring the quality and aesthetics of UGC images still faces two main challenges: 1) A single score is inadequate to capture the hierarchical human perception. 2) How to use MLLMs to output numerical scores, such as mean opinion scores (MOS), remains an open question. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel dataset, named Realistic image Quality and Aesthetic (RealQA), including 14,715 UGC images, each of which is annoted with 10 fine-grained attributes. These attributes span three levels: low level (e.g., image clarity), middle level (e.g., subject integrity) and high level (e.g., composition). Besides, we conduct a series of in-depth and comprehensive investigations into how to effectively predict numerical scores using MLLMs. Surprisingly, by predicting just two extra significant digits, the next token paradigm can achieve SOTA performance. Furthermore, with the help of chain of thought (CoT) combined with the learnt fine-grained attributes, the proposed method can outperform SOTA methods on five public datasets for IQA and IAA with superior interpretability and show strong zero-shot generalization for video quality assessment (VQA). The code and dataset will be released.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

World modeling is a crucial task for enabling intelligent agents to effectively interact with humans and operate in dynamic environments. In this work, we propose MineWorld, a real-time interactive world model on Minecraft, an open-ended sandbox game which has been utilized as a common testbed for world modeling. MineWorld is driven by a visual-action autoregressive Transformer, which takes paired game scenes and corresponding actions as input, and generates consequent new scenes following the actions. Specifically, by transforming visual game scenes and actions into discrete token ids with an image tokenizer and an action tokenizer correspondingly, we consist the model input with the concatenation of the two kinds of ids interleaved. The model is then trained with next token prediction to learn rich representations of game states as well as the conditions between states and actions simultaneously. In inference, we develop a novel parallel decoding algorithm that predicts the spatial redundant tokens in each frame at the same time, letting models in different scales generate 4 to 7 frames per second and enabling real-time interactions with game players. In evaluation, we propose new metrics to assess not only visual quality but also the action following capacity when generating new scenes, which is crucial for a world model. Our comprehensive evaluation shows the efficacy of MineWorld, outperforming SoTA open-sourced diffusion based world models significantly. The code and model have been released.

The remarkable performance of large multimodal models (LMMs) has attracted significant interest from the image segmentation community. To align with the next-token-prediction paradigm, current LMM-driven segmentation methods either use object boundary points to represent masks or introduce special segmentation tokens, whose hidden states are decoded by a segmentation model requiring the original image as input. However, these approaches often suffer from inadequate mask representation and complex architectures, limiting the potential of LMMs. In this work, we propose the Hierarchical Mask Tokenizer (HiMTok), which represents segmentation masks with up to 32 tokens and eliminates the need for the original image during mask de-tokenization. HiMTok allows for compact and coarse-to-fine mask representations, aligning well with the LLM next-token-prediction paradigm and facilitating the direct acquisition of segmentation capabilities. We develop a 3-stage training recipe for progressive learning of segmentation and visual capabilities, featuring a hierarchical mask loss for effective coarse-to-fine learning. Additionally, we enable bidirectional information flow, allowing conversion between bounding boxes and mask tokens to fully leverage multi-task training potential. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across various segmentation tasks,while also enhancing visual grounding and maintaining overall visual understanding.

Most language models face a fundamental tradeoff where powerful capabilities require substantial computational resources. We shatter this constraint with Jan-nano, a 4B parameter language model that redefines efficiency through radical specialization: instead of trying to know everything, it masters the art of finding anything instantly. Fine-tuned from Qwen3-4B using our novel multi-stage RLVR system that completely eliminates reliance on next token prediction training (SFT), Jan-nano achieves 83.2% on SimpleQA benchmark with MCP integration while running on consumer hardware. With 128K context length, Jan-nano proves that intelligence isn't about scale, it's about strategy.

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

Unified multimodal models have recently attracted considerable attention for their remarkable abilities in jointly understanding and generating diverse content. However, as contexts integrate increasingly numerous interleaved multimodal tokens, the iterative processes of diffusion denoising and autoregressive decoding impose significant computational overhead. To address this, we propose Hyper-Bagel, a unified acceleration framework designed to simultaneously speed up both multimodal understanding and generation tasks. Our approach uses a divide-and-conquer strategy, employing speculative decoding for next-token prediction and a multi-stage distillation process for diffusion denoising. The framework delivers substantial performance gains, achieving over a 2x speedup in multimodal understanding. For generative tasks, our resulting lossless 6-NFE model yields a 16.67x speedup in text-to-image generation and a 22x speedup in image editing, all while preserving the high-quality output of the original model. We further develop a highly efficient 1-NFE model that enables near real-time interactive editing and generation. By combining advanced adversarial distillation with human feedback learning, this model achieves ultimate cost-effectiveness and responsiveness, making complex multimodal interactions seamless and instantaneous.

The standard practice for developing contemporary MLLMs is to feed features from vision encoder(s) into the LLM and train with natural language supervision. In this work, we posit an overlooked opportunity to optimize the intermediate LLM representations through a vision perspective (objective), i.e., solely natural language supervision is sub-optimal for the MLLM's visual understanding ability. To that end, we propose OLA-VLM, the first approach distilling knowledge into the LLM's hidden representations from a set of target visual representations. Firstly, we formulate the objective during the pretraining stage in MLLMs as a coupled optimization of predictive visual embedding and next text-token prediction. Secondly, we investigate MLLMs trained solely with natural language supervision and identify a positive correlation between the quality of visual representations within these models and their downstream performance. Moreover, upon probing our OLA-VLM, we observe improved representation quality owing to the embedding optimization. Thirdly, we demonstrate that our OLA-VLM outperforms the single and multi-encoder baselines, proving our approach's superiority over explicitly feeding the corresponding features to the LLM. Particularly, OLA-VLM boosts performance by an average margin of up to 2.5% on various benchmarks, with a notable improvement of 8.7% on the Depth task in CV-Bench. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/SHI-Labs/OLA-VLM .

To induce desired behaviors in large language models (LLMs) for interaction-driven tasks, the instruction-tuning stage typically trains LLMs on instruction-response pairs using the next-token prediction (NTP) loss. Previous work aiming to improve instruction-tuning performance often emphasizes the need for higher-quality supervised fine-tuning (SFT) datasets, which typically involves expensive data filtering with proprietary LLMs or labor-intensive data generation by human annotators. However, these approaches do not fully leverage the datasets' intrinsic properties, resulting in high computational and labor costs, thereby limiting scalability and performance gains. In this paper, we propose SFTMix, a novel recipe that elevates instruction-tuning performance beyond the conventional NTP paradigm, without the need for well-curated datasets. Observing that LLMs exhibit uneven confidence across the semantic representation space, we argue that examples with different confidence levels should play distinct roles during the instruction-tuning process. Based on this insight, SFTMix leverages training dynamics to identify examples with varying confidence levels, then applies a Mixup-based regularization to mitigate overfitting on confident examples while propagating supervision signals to improve learning on relatively unconfident ones. This approach enables SFTMix to significantly outperform NTP across a wide range of instruction-following and healthcare domain-specific SFT tasks, demonstrating its adaptability to diverse LLM families and scalability to datasets of any size. Comprehensive ablation studies further verify the robustness of SFTMix's design choices, underscoring its versatility in consistently enhancing performance across different LLMs and datasets in broader natural language processing applications.

Large language models (LLMs) suffer from low efficiency as the mismatch between the requirement of auto-regressive decoding and the design of most contemporary GPUs. Specifically, billions to trillions of parameters must be loaded to the GPU cache through its limited memory bandwidth for computation, but only a small batch of tokens is actually computed. Consequently, the GPU spends most of its time on memory transfer instead of computation. Recently, parallel decoding, a type of speculative decoding algorithms, is becoming more popular and has demonstrated impressive efficiency improvement in generation. It introduces extra decoding heads to large models, enabling them to predict multiple subsequent tokens simultaneously and verify these candidate continuations in a single decoding step. However, this approach deviates from the training objective of next token prediction used during pre-training, resulting in a low hit rate for candidate tokens. In this paper, we propose a new speculative decoding algorithm, Clover, which integrates sequential knowledge into the parallel decoding process. This enhancement improves the hit rate of speculators and thus boosts the overall efficiency. Clover transmits the sequential knowledge from pre-speculated tokens via the Regressive Connection, then employs an Attention Decoder to integrate these speculated tokens. Additionally, Clover incorporates an Augmenting Block that modifies the hidden states to better align with the purpose of speculative generation rather than next token prediction. The experiment results demonstrate that Clover outperforms the baseline by up to 91% on Baichuan-Small and 146% on Baichuan-Large, respectively, and exceeds the performance of the previously top-performing method, Medusa, by up to 37% on Baichuan-Small and 57% on Baichuan-Large, respectively.

The current use of large language models (LLMs) for zero-shot document ranking follows one of two ways: 1) prompt-based re-ranking methods, which require no further training but are feasible for only re-ranking a handful of candidate documents due to the associated computational costs; and 2) unsupervised contrastive trained dense retrieval methods, which can retrieve relevant documents from the entire corpus but require a large amount of paired text data for contrastive training. In this paper, we propose PromptReps, which combines the advantages of both categories: no need for training and the ability to retrieve from the whole corpus. Our method only requires prompts to guide an LLM to generate query and document representations for effective document retrieval. Specifically, we prompt the LLMs to represent a given text using a single word, and then use the last token's hidden states and the corresponding logits associated to the prediction of the next token to construct a hybrid document retrieval system. The retrieval system harnesses both dense text embedding and sparse bag-of-words representations given by the LLM. Our experimental evaluation on the BEIR zero-shot document retrieval datasets illustrates that this simple prompt-based LLM retrieval method can achieve a similar or higher retrieval effectiveness than state-of-the-art LLM embedding methods that are trained with large amounts of unsupervised data, especially when using a larger LLM.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Neural surrogates for partial differential equations (PDEs) have become popular due to their potential to quickly simulate physics. With a few exceptions, neural surrogates generally treat the forward evolution of time-dependent PDEs as a black box by directly predicting the next state. While this is a natural and easy framework for applying neural surrogates, it can be an over-simplified and rigid framework for predicting physics. In this work, we propose an alternative framework in which neural solvers predict the temporal derivative and an ODE integrator forwards the solution in time, which has little overhead and is broadly applicable across model architectures and PDEs. We find that by simply changing the training target and introducing numerical integration during inference, neural surrogates can gain accuracy and stability. Predicting temporal derivatives also allows models to not be constrained to a specific temporal discretization, allowing for flexible time-stepping during inference or training on higher-resolution PDE data. Lastly, we investigate why this new framework can be beneficial and in what situations does it work well.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

The most fundamental capability of modern AI methods such as Large Language Models (LLMs) is the ability to predict the next token in a long sequence of tokens, known as ``sequence modeling." Although the Transformers model is the current dominant approach to sequence modeling, its quadratic computational cost with respect to sequence length is a significant drawback. State-space models (SSMs) offer a promising alternative due to their linear decoding efficiency and high parallelizability during training. However, existing SSMs often rely on seemingly ad hoc linear recurrence designs. In this work, we explore SSM design through the lens of online learning, conceptualizing SSMs as meta-modules for specific online learning problems. This approach links SSM design to formulating precise online learning objectives, with state transition rules derived from optimizing these objectives. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel deep SSM architecture based on the implicit update for optimizing an online regression objective. Our experimental results show that our models outperform state-of-the-art SSMs, including the Mamba model, on standard sequence modeling benchmarks and language modeling tasks.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.

We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and plays no role during sampling or inference. We hypothesize that our approach eases modeling of long-term dependencies by implicitly forcing the forward states to hold information about the longer-term future (as contained in the backward states). We show empirically that our approach achieves 9% relative improvement for a speech recognition task, and achieves significant improvement on a COCO caption generation task.

Sequence modeling is a crucial area across various domains, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech recognition, time series forecasting, music generation, and bioinformatics. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have historically dominated sequence modeling tasks like Machine Translation, Named Entity Recognition (NER), etc. However, the advancement of transformers has led to a shift in this paradigm, given their superior performance. Yet, transformers suffer from O(N^2) attention complexity and challenges in handling inductive bias. Several variations have been proposed to address these issues which use spectral networks or convolutions and have performed well on a range of tasks. However, they still have difficulty in dealing with long sequences. State Space Models(SSMs) have emerged as promising alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context, especially with the advent of S4 and its variants, such as S4nd, Hippo, Hyena, Diagnol State Spaces (DSS), Gated State Spaces (GSS), Linear Recurrent Unit (LRU), Liquid-S4, Mamba, etc. In this survey, we categorize the foundational SSMs based on three paradigms namely, Gating architectures, Structural architectures, and Recurrent architectures. This survey also highlights diverse applications of SSMs across domains such as vision, video, audio, speech, language (especially long sequence modeling), medical (including genomics), chemical (like drug design), recommendation systems, and time series analysis, including tabular data. Moreover, we consolidate the performance of SSMs on benchmark datasets like Long Range Arena (LRA), WikiText, Glue, Pile, ImageNet, Kinetics-400, sstv2, as well as video datasets such as Breakfast, COIN, LVU, and various time series datasets. The project page for Mamba-360 work is available on this webpage.https://github.com/badripatro/mamba360.

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

A central challenge in sequence modeling is efficiently handling tasks with extended contexts. While recent state-space models (SSMs) have made significant progress in this area, they often lack input-dependent filtering or require substantial increases in model complexity to handle input variability. We address this gap by introducing S7, a simplified yet powerful SSM that can handle input dependence while incorporating stable reparameterization and specific design choices to dynamically adjust state transitions based on input content, maintaining efficiency and performance. We prove that this reparameterization ensures stability in long-sequence modeling by keeping state transitions well-behaved over time. Additionally, it controls the gradient norm, enabling efficient training and preventing issues like exploding or vanishing gradients. S7 significantly outperforms baselines across various sequence modeling tasks, including neuromorphic event-based datasets, Long Range Arena benchmarks, and various physical and biological time series. Overall, S7 offers a more straightforward approach to sequence modeling without relying on complex, domain-specific inductive biases, achieving significant improvements across key benchmarks.

State-space models (SSMs) are a new class of foundation models that have emerged as a compelling alternative to Transformers and their attention mechanisms for sequence processing tasks. This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of selective SSMs, the core components of the Mamba and Mamba-2 architectures. We leverage the connection between selective SSMs and the self-attention mechanism to highlight the fundamental similarities between these models. Building on this connection, we establish a length independent covering number-based generalization bound for selective SSMs, providing a deeper understanding of their theoretical performance guarantees. We analyze the effects of state matrix stability and input-dependent discretization, shedding light on the critical role played by these factors in the generalization capabilities of selective SSMs. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the sequence length independence of the derived bounds on two tasks.

Recently, recurrent models such as state space models and linear attention have become popular due to their linear complexity in the sequence length. Thanks to their recurrent nature, in principle they can process arbitrarily long sequences, but their performance sometimes drops considerably beyond their training context lengths-i.e. they fail to length generalize. In this work, we provide comprehensive empirical and theoretical analysis to support the unexplored states hypothesis, which posits that models fail to length generalize when during training they are only exposed to a limited subset of the distribution of all attainable states (i.e. states that would be attained if the recurrence was applied to long sequences). Furthermore, we investigate simple training interventions that aim to increase the coverage of the states that the model is trained on, e.g. by initializing the state with Gaussian noise or with the final state of a different input sequence. With only 500 post-training steps (sim 0.1% of the pre-training budget), these interventions enable length generalization for sequences that are orders of magnitude longer than the training context (e.g. 2klongrightarrow 128k) and show improved performance in long context tasks, thus presenting a simple and efficient way to enable robust length generalization in general recurrent models.

A central goal of sequence modeling is designing a single principled model that can address sequence data across a range of modalities and tasks, particularly on long-range dependencies. Although conventional models including RNNs, CNNs, and Transformers have specialized variants for capturing long dependencies, they still struggle to scale to very long sequences of 10000 or more steps. A promising recent approach proposed modeling sequences by simulating the fundamental state space model (SSM) \( x'(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t), y(t) = Cx(t) + Du(t) \), and showed that for appropriate choices of the state matrix \( A \), this system could handle long-range dependencies mathematically and empirically. However, this method has prohibitive computation and memory requirements, rendering it infeasible as a general sequence modeling solution. We propose the Structured State Space sequence model (S4) based on a new parameterization for the SSM, and show that it can be computed much more efficiently than prior approaches while preserving their theoretical strengths. Our technique involves conditioning \( A \) with a low-rank correction, allowing it to be diagonalized stably and reducing the SSM to the well-studied computation of a Cauchy kernel. S4 achieves strong empirical results across a diverse range of established benchmarks, including (i) 91\% accuracy on sequential CIFAR-10 with no data augmentation or auxiliary losses, on par with a larger 2-D ResNet, (ii) substantially closing the gap to Transformers on image and language modeling tasks, while performing generation 60times faster (iii) SoTA on every task from the Long Range Arena benchmark, including solving the challenging Path-X task of length 16k that all prior work fails on, while being as efficient as all competitors.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Structured state space sequence (S4) models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on long-range sequence modeling tasks. These models also have fast inference speeds and parallelisable training, making them potentially useful in many reinforcement learning settings. We propose a modification to a variant of S4 that enables us to initialise and reset the hidden state in parallel, allowing us to tackle reinforcement learning tasks. We show that our modified architecture runs asymptotically faster than Transformers in sequence length and performs better than RNN's on a simple memory-based task. We evaluate our modified architecture on a set of partially-observable environments and find that, in practice, our model outperforms RNN's while also running over five times faster. Then, by leveraging the model's ability to handle long-range sequences, we achieve strong performance on a challenging meta-learning task in which the agent is given a randomly-sampled continuous control environment, combined with a randomly-sampled linear projection of the environment's observations and actions. Furthermore, we show the resulting model can adapt to out-of-distribution held-out tasks. Overall, the results presented in this paper show that structured state space models are fast and performant for in-context reinforcement learning tasks. We provide code at https://github.com/luchris429/popjaxrl.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Recent advancements in sequence modeling have led to the emergence of Structured State Space Models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Transformers, addressing challenges in long-range dependency modeling and computational efficiency. While RNNs suffer from vanishing gradients and sequential inefficiencies, and Transformers face quadratic complexity, SSMs leverage structured recurrence and state-space representations to achieve superior long-sequence processing with linear or near-linear complexity. This survey provides a comprehensive review of SSMs, tracing their evolution from the foundational S4 model to its successors like Mamba, Simplified Structured State Space Sequence Model (S5), and Jamba, highlighting their improvements in computational efficiency, memory optimization, and inference speed. By comparing SSMs with traditional sequence models across domains such as natural language processing (NLP), speech recognition, vision, and time-series forecasting, we demonstrate their advantages in handling long-range dependencies while reducing computational overhead. Despite their potential, challenges remain in areas such as training optimization, hybrid modeling, and interpretability. This survey serves as a structured guide for researchers and practitioners, detailing the advancements, trade-offs, and future directions of SSM-based architectures in AI and deep learning.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that addresses these challenges through two key innovations: a state space model (SSM) based encoder and a functional basis decoder. This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons. In contrast to other state-of-the-art TSFMs, which require training data across all possible sampling rates to memorize patterns at each scale, FlowState inherently adapts its internal dynamics to the input scale, enabling smaller models, reduced data requirements, and improved efficiency. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being the smallest model, FlowState outperforms all other models and is state-of-the-art for the GIFT-ZS and the Chronos-ZS benchmarks. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt online to varying input sampling rates.

A popular approach to sample a diffusion-based generative model is to solve an ordinary differential equation (ODE). In existing samplers, the coefficients of the ODE solvers are pre-determined by the ODE formulation, the reverse discrete timesteps, and the employed ODE methods. In this paper, we consider accelerating several popular ODE-based sampling processes (including EDM, DDIM, and DPM-Solver) by optimizing certain coefficients via improved integration approximation (IIA). We propose to minimize, for each time step, a mean squared error (MSE) function with respect to the selected coefficients. The MSE is constructed by applying the original ODE solver for a set of fine-grained timesteps, which in principle provides a more accurate integration approximation in predicting the next diffusion state. The proposed IIA technique does not require any change of a pre-trained model, and only introduces a very small computational overhead for solving a number of quadratic optimization problems. Extensive experiments show that considerably better FID scores can be achieved by using IIA-EDM, IIA-DDIM, and IIA-DPM-Solver than the original counterparts when the neural function evaluation (NFE) is small (i.e., less than 25).

Predicting the motion of other agents in a scene is highly relevant for autonomous driving, as it allows a self-driving car to anticipate. Inspired by the success of decoder-only models for language modeling, we propose DONUT, a Decoder-Only Network for Unrolling Trajectories. Unlike existing encoder-decoder forecasting models, we encode historical trajectories and predict future trajectories with a single autoregressive model. This allows the model to make iterative predictions in a consistent manner, and ensures that the model is always provided with up-to-date information, thereby enhancing performance. Furthermore, inspired by multi-token prediction for language modeling, we introduce an 'overprediction' strategy that gives the model the auxiliary task of predicting trajectories at longer temporal horizons. This allows the model to better anticipate the future and further improves performance. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our decoder-only approach outperforms the encoder-decoder baseline, and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the Argoverse 2 single-agent motion forecasting benchmark.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

While Transformers and other sequence-parallelizable neural network architectures seem like the current state of the art in sequence modeling, they specifically lack state-tracking capabilities. These are important for time-series tasks and logical reasoning. Traditional RNNs like LSTMs and GRUs, as well as modern variants like sLSTM do have these capabilities at the cost of strictly sequential processing. While this is often seen as a strong limitation, we show how fast these networks can get with our hardware-optimization FlashRNN in Triton and CUDA, optimizing kernels to the register level on modern GPUs. We extend traditional RNNs with a parallelization variant that processes multiple RNNs of smaller hidden state in parallel, similar to the head-wise processing in Transformers. To enable flexibility on different GPU variants, we introduce a new optimization framework for hardware-internal cache sizes, memory and compute handling. It models the hardware in a setting using polyhedral-like constraints, including the notion of divisibility. This speeds up the solution process in our ConstrINT library for general integer constraint satisfaction problems (integer CSPs). We show that our kernels can achieve 50x speed-ups over a vanilla PyTorch implementation and allow 40x larger hidden sizes compared to our Triton implementation. Our open-source kernels and the optimization library are released here to boost research in the direction of state-tracking enabled RNNs and sequence modeling: https://github.com/NX-AI/flashrnn

Recently, recurrent models based on linear state space models (SSMs) have shown promising performance in language modeling (LM), competititve with transformers. However, there is little understanding of the in-principle abilities of such models, which could provide useful guidance to the search for better LM architectures. We present a comprehensive theoretical study of the capacity of such SSMs as it compares to that of transformers and traditional RNNs. We find that SSMs and transformers have overlapping but distinct strengths. In star-free state tracking, SSMs implement straightforward and exact solutions to problems that transformers struggle to represent exactly. They can also model bounded hierarchical structure with optimal memory even without simulating a stack. On the other hand, we identify a design choice in current SSMs that limits their expressive power. We discuss implications for SSM and LM research, and verify results empirically on a recent SSM, Mamba.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Next location prediction plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Recently, due to the limitation of existing deep learning methods, attempts have been made to apply large language models (LLMs) to zero-shot next location prediction task. However, they directly generate the final output using LLMs without systematic design, which limits the potential of LLMs to uncover complex mobility patterns and underestimates their extensive reserve of global geospatial knowledge. In this paper, we introduce AgentMove, a systematic agentic prediction framework to achieve generalized next location prediction. In AgentMove, we first decompose the mobility prediction task and design specific modules to complete them, including spatial-temporal memory for individual mobility pattern mining, world knowledge generator for modeling the effects of urban structure and collective knowledge extractor for capturing the shared patterns among population. Finally, we combine the results of three modules and conduct a reasoning step to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments utilizing mobility data from two distinct sources reveal that AgentMove surpasses the leading baseline by 3.33% to 8.57% across 8 out of 12 metrics and it shows robust predictions with various LLMs as base and also less geographical bias across cities. Our codes are available via https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/AgentMove.

We cast real-world humanoid control as a next token prediction problem, akin to predicting the next word in language. Our model is a causal transformer trained via autoregressive prediction of sensorimotor trajectories. To account for the multi-modal nature of the data, we perform prediction in a modality-aligned way, and for each input token predict the next token from the same modality. This general formulation enables us to leverage data with missing modalities, like video trajectories without actions. We train our model on a collection of simulated trajectories coming from prior neural network policies, model-based controllers, motion capture data, and YouTube videos of humans. We show that our model enables a full-sized humanoid to walk in San Francisco zero-shot. Our model can transfer to the real world even when trained on only 27 hours of walking data, and can generalize to commands not seen during training like walking backward. These findings suggest a promising path toward learning challenging real-world control tasks by generative modeling of sensorimotor trajectories.

Representations are at the core of all deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods for both Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Many representation learning methods and theoretical frameworks have been developed to understand what constitutes an effective representation. However, the relationships between these methods and the shared properties among them remain unclear. In this paper, we show that many of these seemingly distinct methods and frameworks for state and history abstractions are, in fact, based on a common idea of self-predictive abstraction. Furthermore, we provide theoretical insights into the widely adopted objectives and optimization, such as the stop-gradient technique, in learning self-predictive representations. These findings together yield a minimalist algorithm to learn self-predictive representations for states and histories. We validate our theories by applying our algorithm to standard MDPs, MDPs with distractors, and POMDPs with sparse rewards. These findings culminate in a set of preliminary guidelines for RL practitioners.

State Space Models (SSMs) have recently emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformer-Based Models (TBMs) for long-sequence processing, offering linear scaling and lower memory use. Yet, how contextual information flows across layers and tokens in these architectures remains understudied. We present the first unified, token- and layer-level analysis of representation propagation in SSMs and TBMs. Using centered kernel alignment, stability metrics, and probing, we characterize how representations evolve within and across layers. We find a key divergence: TBMs rapidly homogenize token representations, with diversity reemerging only in later layers, while SSMs preserve token uniqueness early but converge to homogenization deeper. Theoretical analysis and parameter randomization further reveal that oversmoothing in TBMs stems from architectural design, whereas in SSMs it arises mainly from training dynamics. These insights clarify the inductive biases of both architectures and inform future model and training designs for long-context reasoning.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

State space models (SSMs) have shown impressive results on tasks that require modeling long-range dependencies and efficiently scale to long sequences owing to their subquadratic runtime complexity. Originally designed for continuous signals, SSMs have shown superior performance on a plethora of tasks, in vision and audio; however, SSMs still lag Transformer performance in Language Modeling tasks. In this work, we propose a hybrid layer named Block-State Transformer (BST), that internally combines an SSM sublayer for long-range contextualization, and a Block Transformer sublayer for short-term representation of sequences. We study three different, and completely parallelizable, variants that integrate SSMs and block-wise attention. We show that our model outperforms similar Transformer-based architectures on language modeling perplexity and generalizes to longer sequences. In addition, the Block-State Transformer demonstrates more than tenfold increase in speed at the layer level compared to the Block-Recurrent Transformer when model parallelization is employed.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) offer fast inference on long sequences but are hard to optimize and slow to train. Deep state-space models (SSMs) have recently been shown to perform remarkably well on long sequence modeling tasks, and have the added benefits of fast parallelizable training and RNN-like fast inference. However, while SSMs are superficially similar to RNNs, there are important differences that make it unclear where their performance boost over RNNs comes from. In this paper, we show that careful design of deep RNNs using standard signal propagation arguments can recover the impressive performance of deep SSMs on long-range reasoning tasks, while also matching their training speed. To achieve this, we analyze and ablate a series of changes to standard RNNs including linearizing and diagonalizing the recurrence, using better parameterizations and initializations, and ensuring proper normalization of the forward pass. Our results provide new insights on the origins of the impressive performance of deep SSMs, while also introducing an RNN block called the Linear Recurrent Unit that matches both their performance on the Long Range Arena benchmark and their computational efficiency.

State space models have shown to be effective at modeling long range dependencies, specially on sequence classification tasks. In this work we focus on autoregressive sequence modeling over English books, Github source code and ArXiv mathematics articles. Based on recent developments around the effectiveness of gated activation functions, we propose a new layer named Gated State Space (GSS) and show that it trains significantly faster than the diagonal version of S4 (i.e. DSS) on TPUs, is fairly competitive with several well-tuned Transformer-based baselines and exhibits zero-shot generalization to longer inputs while being straightforward to implement. Finally, we show that leveraging self-attention to model local dependencies improves the performance of GSS even further.