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JeromePowell-SFT

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You’ve been very clear about the Committee’s intention on rates not even thinking about thinking about raising rates and today showing low rates even as unemployment falls to 4 percent and inflation rises to 2 percent My question is about asset purchases Does the guidance today apply to the current asset purchase pace? Are there any macroeconomic conditions under which you would favor increasing the monthly pace of Treasury and MBS purchases? And under what conditions would a decrease in the monthly pace of purchases be appropriate? Thank you	NICK TIMIRAOS	[ { "content": "You’ve been very clear about the Committee’s intention on rates not even thinking about thinking about raising rates and today showing low rates even as unemployment falls to 4 percent and inflation rises to 2 percent My question is about asset purchases Does the guidance today apply to the curren...
New York Times I was wondering you beefed up your language on financial stability in the long-run statement that you unveiled with your Jackson Hole speech last month I’m wondering if you could walk us through how you think about financial stability concerns as a factor in guiding and interpreting increases You know would financial stability concerns on their own be enough to merit changes in the fed funds rate? Or would they have to come in conjunction with an overheating on inflation or some dramatic drop in the unemployment rate? If you could give us an outline of your thinking there please	JEANNA SMIALEK	[ { "content": "New York Times I was wondering you beefed up your language on financial stability in the long-run statement that you unveiled with your Jackson Hole speech last month I’m wondering if you could walk us through how you think about financial stability concerns as a factor in guiding and interpreting...
I wonder if you could help me understand how the projections of the Committee line up with the goals of the Committee You’ve now altered the projections to—the statement to aim for inflation above 2 percent But when I look at the SEP I don’t see the Committee believing a single year in the next four years that you are ever above 2 percent In fact for each year you are below it until 2023 which is the first time that you actually hit 2 percent So do you think— you confident—is this just the Committee is not confident that not only can it not hit its 2 percent goal but that now it can’t hit its goal of being above 2 percent?	STEVE LIESMAN	[ { "content": "I wonder if you could help me understand how the projections of the Committee line up with the goals of the Committee You’ve now altered the projections to—the statement to aim for inflation above 2 percent But when I look at the SEP I don’t see the Committee believing a single year in the next fo...
Thanks very much for taking my question I wanted to ask if you anticipate a slowing in the pace of the recovery if there is not another stimulus package and specifically if there are particular holes still remaining in the economy that you think could be helped by more aid from Congress Thanks very much	RACHEL SIEGEL	[ { "content": "Thanks very much for taking my question I wanted to ask if you anticipate a slowing in the pace of the recovery if there is not another stimulus package and specifically if there are particular holes still remaining in the economy that you think could be helped by more aid from Congress Thanks ver...
Should we expect any further evolutions in forward guidance say maybe an adoption of something akin to the Evans rule that we had a few years ago? Or is there something else that the Fed might be considering in the future?	MICHAEL DERBY	[ { "content": "Should we expect any further evolutions in forward guidance say maybe an adoption of something akin to the Evans rule that we had a few years ago? Or is there something else that the Fed might be considering in the future?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "Well, so we think that the fo...
for doing this So to follow up on Mike’s question there since you described this guidance as durable you—you’ve set up a three-part test here for rate hikes: levels consistent with assessments of maximum employment inflation has risen to 2 percent and you’re on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time Each of these have modifiers and I wonder if you could explain them a little bit more How do we pin down assessments of maximum employment? When you say that “inflation has risen to 2 percent” does that mean 2 percent for a day a month six months? And when you say “on track to moderately exceed” how should we define “moderately”? And how should we define “for some time”?	HOWARD SCHNEIDER	[ { "content": "for doing this So to follow up on Mike’s question there since you described this guidance as durable you—you’ve set up a three-part test here for rate hikes: levels consistent with assessments of maximum employment inflation has risen to 2 percent and you’re on track to moderately exceed 2 percent...
Do you consider today’s enhanced forward guidance to have actual accommodation to the—to the US economy from a monetary perspective and deliver further support for the economy? Or is it just a tweak to your existing policy stance? And in terms of fiscal support do you assume in your own projections—not just private forecasters—that additional fiscal support will be forthcoming? Or do you expect weaker growth or a—or a larger contraction rather this year if no fiscal support is forthcoming?	JAMES POLITI	[ { "content": "Do you consider today’s enhanced forward guidance to have actual accommodation to the—to the US economy from a monetary perspective and deliver further support for the economy? Or is it just a tweak to your existing policy stance? And in terms of fiscal support do you assume in your own projection...
given the recent update to the policy framework and repeated calls for this in the Fed Listens events is the Fed open to other measures of the economy such as income inequality and affordability of housing?	ANNEKEN TAPPE	[ { "content": "given the recent update to the policy framework and repeated calls for this in the Fed Listens events is the Fed open to other measures of the economy such as income inequality and affordability of housing?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "So we—you know, we monitor everything we thin...
for the question I just wanted some clarity here At what point do you think it’s prudent to shift the bond purchases from market stability—as you had said from the shorter-term maturities to more longer-term more stimulus-related?	EDWARD LAWRENCE	[ { "content": "for the question I just wanted some clarity here At what point do you think it’s prudent to shift the bond purchases from market stability—as you had said from the shorter-term maturities to more longer-term more stimulus-related?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "So, you know, we thin...
I wanted to ask about a couple of things First of all if we don’t get a vaccine until well into next year what does that mean for the economy? And then somewhat related I was wondering if you could provide any more detail about the stress scenarios that you all are going to release for the big banks and whether that is going to be another full-blown stress test whether we’re going to publicly see those results and what it might mean for bank payouts	VICTORIA GUIDA	[ { "content": "I wanted to ask about a couple of things First of all if we don’t get a vaccine until well into next year what does that mean for the economy? And then somewhat related I was wondering if you could provide any more detail about the stress scenarios that you all are going to release for the big ban...
You have emphasized many times including today that the Fed can only lend and not spend and sometimes the latter is what’s really needed But to the extent that a $600 billion lending program for small and midsize companies could help what exactly is wrong with the design or function of the Main Street Lending Program which has purchased just I think $14 billion in loans so far? Eric Rosengren at the Boston Fed has said recently that Congress should clarify how much risk it wants the program to take But Congress has already appropriated substantial funds for the 13(3) programs and these are funds that are explicitly designed to absorb losses Meanwhile my colleagues who cover the banking sector say they’re being told by commercial banks that the Treasury Department is advising them to target zero losses—zero losses in Main Street Program loans So if I may why is it that the Federal Reserve the Congress and the Treasury apparently cannot agree on a loss tolerance that should be applied to the Main Street Lending Program in a way that would allow badly needed credit to reach these companies? Thank you	CHRISTOPHER CONDON	[ { "content": "You have emphasized many times including today that the Fed can only lend and not spend and sometimes the latter is what’s really needed But to the extent that a $600 billion lending program for small and midsize companies could help what exactly is wrong with the design or function of the Main St...
you’ve talked a couple of times about parts of the economy that may not recover as fast as we’ve seen so far Presumably you’re referring to airlines hotels other sections— parts of the economy that rely on close contact How are you thinking about that in terms of its overall impact? Is that sector large enough to say keep unemployment above— far above your maximum goals? Are you expecting that to come back with a vaccine? Or are a lot of those folks going to have to find you know new jobs in new industries? And should we expect the Fed will keep rates at zero until all of that reallocation is done? Thank you	CHRISTOPHER RUGABER	[ { "content": "you’ve talked a couple of times about parts of the economy that may not recover as fast as we’ve seen so far Presumably you’re referring to airlines hotels other sections— parts of the economy that rely on close contact How are you thinking about that in terms of its overall impact? Is that sector...
Based on what you were just saying about keeping policy accommodative for a very long time into the recovery lower-for-longer as far out as three years in your latest projections is that basically it for the Fed? In other words since interest rates are your main tool the things you can do would push down on interest rates But is it really—is it the case now that the only additional stimulus that can come to the economy is from the fiscal side?	MICHAEL MCKEE	[ { "content": "Based on what you were just saying about keeping policy accommodative for a very long time into the recovery lower-for-longer as far out as three years in your latest projections is that basically it for the Fed? In other words since interest rates are your main tool the things you can do would pu...
I’d like to ask you about the labor market As in August there were about 30 million persons claiming unemployment benefits Yet the BLS jobs report for August showed about 13½ million unemployed only about 6 million more than before the pandemic I wonder how you reconcile that and what you think the actual labor market conditions are	DON LEE	[ { "content": "I’d like to ask you about the labor market As in August there were about 30 million persons claiming unemployment benefits Yet the BLS jobs report for August showed about 13½ million unemployed only about 6 million more than before the pandemic I wonder how you reconcile that and what you think th...
I want to follow up on the wealth gap issue I know you were—that you have limited tools But are there things that you can do possibly in the area of research and maybe expand your research on racial economic gaps?	NANCY MARSHALL	[ { "content": "I want to follow up on the wealth gap issue I know you were—that you have limited tools But are there things that you can do possibly in the area of research and maybe expand your research on racial economic gaps?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "You know, we do—we are gifted with a, ...
I want to go back to the new forward guidance that you have And you said that it’s powerful but you’ve already have two dissent—two dissenting voters on it And I was wondering if there’s people who argued against it And what do you say to the two who dissented? It looks like President Kashkari wanted a simpler forward guidance and President Kaplan thought that the current guidance you have was fine for now So like how did you argue back on those on those arguments? Thank you	GREG ROBB	[ { "content": "I want to go back to the new forward guidance that you have And you said that it’s powerful but you’ve already have two dissent—two dissenting voters on it And I was wondering if there’s people who argued against it And what do you say to the two who dissented? It looks like President Kashkari wan...
I wanted to ask about commercial real estate know you had mentioned before how you weren’t sure if there was a way the Fed could support CRE borrowers But I was just wondering if you had—if you’ve had any other continuing discussions on that and if there’s any potential way that the Fed could step that area	HANNAH LANG	[ { "content": "I wanted to ask about commercial real estate know you had mentioned before how you weren’t sure if there was a way the Fed could support CRE borrowers But I was just wondering if you had—if you’ve had any other continuing discussions on that and if there’s any potential way that the Fed could step...
So it seems like a lot of the new inflation framework is about shaping inflation expectations But the average American who might be watching this might be confused as to why the Fed is overshooting inflation So what’s your explanation to Main Street to average people what the Fed is trying to do here and what the outcome would be for those on Main Street? Thanks	BRIAN CHEUNG	[ { "content": "So it seems like a lot of the new inflation framework is about shaping inflation expectations But the average American who might be watching this might be confused as to why the Fed is overshooting inflation So what’s your explanation to Main Street to average people what the Fed is trying to do h...
and thank you Chair Powell for taking our questions I’m wondering if you can walk us through expectations you have specifically when it comes to the labor market going into 2023 And I’m curious about people who may have left the labor market who have yet to come back or who may face issues with childcare Perhaps they’ve retired early Any barriers that you see in keeping people from the labor market as you consider full employment going into 2023? Thank you	RACHEL SIEGEL	[ { "content": "and thank you Chair Powell for taking our questions I’m wondering if you can walk us through expectations you have specifically when it comes to the labor market going into 2023 And I’m curious about people who may have left the labor market who have yet to come back or who may face issues with ch...
Your—the Committee’s median forecast on inflation seems to assume a tame outlook for the rest of the year As the three-month annualized rate for the past three months was I think 84 percent in the CPI And I’m just wondering how much longer we can sustain kinds of rates before you get nervous Thanks	PAUL KIERNAN	[ { "content": "Your—the Committee’s median forecast on inflation seems to assume a tame outlook for the rest of the year As the three-month annualized rate for the past three months was I think 84 percent in the CPI And I’m just wondering how much longer we can sustain kinds of rates before you get nervous Thank...
for doing this My question for you is that you mentioned that your colleagues did have a discussion about the progress that you’re making toward goals in order to consider tapering your asset purchases In that discussion you said that you didn’t—haven’t made substantial progress yet but that you expect to continue to make progress In that discussion did you guys talk about a timeline for when you expect to see that progress be made and when you might consider starting to reduce those purchases?	YLAN MUI	[ { "content": "for doing this My question for you is that you mentioned that your colleagues did have a discussion about the progress that you’re making toward goals in order to consider tapering your asset purchases In that discussion you said that you didn’t—haven’t made substantial progress yet but that you e...
you mentioned—let me ask about inflation expectations You said they were—I think you mentioned in your opening statement that you saw them as within target Does that mean that some of the shorter-term measures we’ve seen out there such as the New York Federal Reserve’s three-year outlook which jumped a bit—should those be dismissed? And are we only looking at longer-term inflation expectations? And would you describe those as still well anchored at this point? And on a related note would the Fed consider publishing its index of common inflation expectations on a monthly basis? Thank you	CHRIS RUGABER	[ { "content": "you mentioned—let me ask about inflation expectations You said they were—I think you mentioned in your opening statement that you saw them as within target Does that mean that some of the shorter-term measures we’ve seen out there such as the New York Federal Reserve’s three-year outlook which jum...
Chair Powell—thanks Chair Powell Your economic projections today forecast 7 percent growth in 2022 unemployment at 4½ percent and core inflation of 3 percent If those conditions are achieved by the end of the year would that constitute substantial further progress in your mind? And more broadly when you look at the median forecast for interest rates in 2023 showing not one but two interest rate increases at the time is this kind of—can you describe the tone of the—of the discussion in the Committee? And are we really moving towards sort of a post-pandemic stance? Is there greater confidence that the recovery will be a full recovery sooner than expected?	JAMES POLITI	[ { "content": "Chair Powell—thanks Chair Powell Your economic projections today forecast 7 percent growth in 2022 unemployment at 4½ percent and core inflation of 3 percent If those conditions are achieved by the end of the year would that constitute substantial further progress in your mind? And more broadly wh...
Continuing—Chair Powell continuing in that vein when you’re ready how will you go about signaling the start of tapering when you do decide to do that?	NANCY MARSHALL	[ { "content": "Continuing—Chair Powell continuing in that vein when you’re ready how will you go about signaling the start of tapering when you do decide to do that?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent. And I can ...
If I were a businessman looking at the forecast today I would ask how and when the Fed seeks to achieve an average of 2 percent inflation In other words does the FOMC have a look-back period? Or does it plan to suppress inflation in outer years because over the next three years you’re going to be above inflation? So what is your look-back period? Does the Committee have one? And if not why not? And if they don’t why isn’t this just flexible inflation targeting without an average in a range of 2 to 2¼ percent? Thanks	CRAIG TORRES	[ { "content": "If I were a businessman looking at the forecast today I would ask how and when the Fed seeks to achieve an average of 2 percent inflation In other words does the FOMC have a look-back period? Or does it plan to suppress inflation in outer years because over the next three years you’re going to be ...
So I wanted to ask you about the reverse repo usage that we’ve seen lately I was curious if you are at all concerned about the level of money flowing into the reverse repo facility And do you believe that the changes in the Fed’s rate control toolkit today will have any impact on that? And then in a related question do you think that Fed asset purchases are taking too many safe assets out of the market right now and creating maybe some dislocations in the money markets?	MICHAEL DERBY	[ { "content": "So I wanted to ask you about the reverse repo usage that we’ve seen lately I was curious if you are at all concerned about the level of money flowing into the reverse repo facility And do you believe that the changes in the Fed’s rate control toolkit today will have any impact on that? And then in...
I was wondering if you could follow up a little bit on your response to Rachel at the very beginning and talk a little bit about how we should understand what full employment means in a world that as you mentioned is pretty roiled All the data is pretty—has been pretty roiled by the pandemic and we’re not really sure where EPOP is going to settle in we’re not sure where participation is going to settle in And wages are already looking decent So I guess I wonder what full employment means in this context how you’re thinking about those wage data	JEANNA SMIALEK	[ { "content": "I was wondering if you could follow up a little bit on your response to Rachel at the very beginning and talk a little bit about how we should understand what full employment means in a world that as you mentioned is pretty roiled All the data is pretty—has been pretty roiled by the pandemic and w...
I wanted to ask about the status of your thinking around the supplementary leverage ratio right now Is the Fed still thinking about ways to permanently adjust this to account for the high growth in deposits? And do you ultimately believe a permanent fix is needed? And any information on the timing around that would be—would be helpful	HANNAH LANG	[ { "content": "I wanted to ask about the status of your thinking around the supplementary leverage ratio right now Is the Fed still thinking about ways to permanently adjust this to account for the high growth in deposits? And do you ultimately believe a permanent fix is needed? And any information on the timing...
the price jumps we’ve seen in some raw materials—lumber for example you mentioned that earlier—seem to be easing And it looks like we’re at the beginning of suppliers catching up with demand But I wonder if you’re worried at all if we’re going to end up with excess supply immediately after those shortages wear off and if we just continue this mismatch as we’re recovering and getting out of the pandemic economy And I wonder how that would affect the Fed’s outlook at all	ANNEKEN TAPPE	[ { "content": "the price jumps we’ve seen in some raw materials—lumber for example you mentioned that earlier—seem to be easing And it looks like we’re at the beginning of suppliers catching up with demand But I wonder if you’re worried at all if we’re going to end up with excess supply immediately after those s...
Reuters Thanks Chair Powell for taking this I don’t want to miss the moment here And I just—I noticed that in the statement you dropped the language saying that the pandemic is weighing on the economy So is this the effective end in your view of the pandemic as a constraint on economic activity even though it’s still cited as a risk?	HOWARD SCHNEIDER	[ { "content": "Reuters Thanks Chair Powell for taking this I don’t want to miss the moment here And I just—I noticed that in the statement you dropped the language saying that the pandemic is weighing on the economy So is this the effective end in your view of the pandemic as a constraint on economic activity ev...
wanted to ask a little bit more about inflation to make sure I understand how you’re thinking about this So in the projections inflation is expected be high this year and then come back down next year and then maybe start to rise a little bit again enough for a liftoff in 2023 You know I know that’s obviously— take that with a grain of salt But that would suggest that you all could theoretically see inflation sustainably staying above 2 percent And so I guess my question is what would be causing that inflation? What would be—because it seems like you all now see a situation in which inflation would be rising in a way that isn’t caused by transitory factors in the—in the next couple of years So would that be the result of a tight labor market? Would that be because this whole situation has raised people’s inflation expectations? How are you thinking about that?	VICTORIA GUIDA	[ { "content": "wanted to ask a little bit more about inflation to make sure I understand how you’re thinking about this So in the projections inflation is expected be high this year and then come back down next year and then maybe start to rise a little bit again enough for a liftoff in 2023 You know I know that...
I’m just looking at the forecast and one thing I just don’t think has been talked about all that much is how much you guys—the Fed thinks that the economy is going to slow next year are we looking at a scenario of a slowing economy next year with higher inflation? And what do you think about that?	GREG ROBB	[ { "content": "I’m just looking at the forecast and one thing I just don’t think has been talked about all that much is how much you guys—the Fed thinks that the economy is going to slow next year are we looking at a scenario of a slowing economy next year with higher inflation? And what do you think about that?...
Doesn’t it seem like there’s a risk like stagflation— where that—you’re going to go from 7 percent and down that means the economy’s really dropping in some way We haven’t seen that right?	GREGG ROBB	[ { "content": "Doesn’t it seem like there’s a risk like stagflation— where that—you’re going to go from 7 percent and down that means the economy’s really dropping in some way We haven’t seen that right?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "Well, the economy’s not, not decel—the economy is still growing...
Yahoo Finance On that point you talked about maybe some of the more structural changes in that last answer with regards to productivity I noted that the median projection for r* the longer-term interest rate is still the same at 25 percent But there’s been some literature out there that maybe the COVID crisis could have actually changed some of the underlying fundamentals of the economy and maybe changed productivity in addition to combined with demographic changes that have already been in effect to suggest longer-term neutral rate or r* might be higher What would the implications of that be for monetary policy? Do you think that maybe the Fed could have the possibility of underestimating the long-run neutral rate? And what might be the impact of that?	BRIAN CHEUNG	[ { "content": "Yahoo Finance On that point you talked about maybe some of the more structural changes in that last answer with regards to productivity I noted that the median projection for r* the longer-term interest rate is still the same at 25 percent But there’s been some literature out there that maybe the ...
of course you’ll be shocked to learn that you have some critics on Wall Street And I would like to paraphrase a couple of their criticisms and get your reaction to them One is that the new policy framework is that you react to actual data and do not react to forecasts yet the actual inflation data is coming in hot and you’re relying on the forecast that it will cool down in order to make policy I wanted to get your view on how you square that Another is that you have a long runway you’ve said for tapering with announcements But if the data keep coming in faster than expected are you trapped by fear of a taper tantrum from advancing the time period in which you announce a taper? And finally you’ve said the Fed knows how to combat inflation but raising rates also slows the economy And there’s a concern that you might be sacrificing the economy if you wait too long and have to raise rates too quickly	MICHAEL MCKEE	[ { "content": "of course you’ll be shocked to learn that you have some critics on Wall Street And I would like to paraphrase a couple of their criticisms and get your reaction to them One is that the new policy framework is that you react to actual data and do not react to forecasts yet the actual inflation data...
To what extent has the more limited impact from tariffs at this stage on inflation changed your view on what the ultimate economic fallout will be from these policies and the timing of when they will materialize in the data?	COLBY SMITH	[ { "content": "To what extent has the more limited impact from tariffs at this stage on inflation changed your view on what the ultimate economic fallout will be from these policies and the timing of when they will materialize in the data?", "role": "user" }, { "content": "So we’ve had three months o...
the rate path starting in December to today and adjust it over the full time horizon you’ve got there you’ve taken about ¼ point per year out of your projected path And you end at a higher rate in end-2027 than you were—would have in the prior forecast Is that a result a sense that tariffs will lead to more persistent inflation? Is it a result of reassessments of where your short-term neutral rate is? Is it— are you on a slower path now?	HOWARD SCHNEIDER	[ { "content": "the rate path starting in December to today and adjust it over the full time horizon you’ve got there you’ve taken about ¼ point per year out of your projected path And you end at a higher rate in end-2027 than you were—would have in the prior forecast Is that a result a sense that tariffs will le...
Thank you. Chris Rugaber at Associated Press. There is an argument out there in favor of cutting rates more immediately. Inflation has continued to cool and is back at roughly 2 percent, despite the tariffs. And I guess I also wanted to ask about, you know, cracks in the job market, with gross hiring slowing—concentrated in just a few industries. We’ve seen some housing data, including this morning, that have been pretty weak. Do you see any concerns that, you know, the economy is weakening and that is a reason to cut rates going forward?	CHRISTOPHER RUGABER	[ { "content": "Thank you. Chris Rugaber at Associated Press. There is an argument out there in favor of cutting rates more immediately. Inflation has continued to cool and is back at roughly 2 percent, despite the tariffs. And I guess I also wanted to ask about, you know, cracks in the job market, with gross hir...
Thank you. Mr. Chair, I wonder if you could describe for us some of those scenarios. How do you get to a place—I’m noticing that the uncertainty levels in your forecast are very high. How do you get to a place where you have the confidence in the outlook for—say, inflation and/or growth or the unemployment rate—how many months does it take, and what do you want to see in the data to get to that level of confidence to actually reduce rates off the restrictive level?	STEVE LIESMAN	[ { "content": "Thank you. Mr. Chair, I wonder if you could describe for us some of those scenarios. How do you get to a place—I’m noticing that the uncertainty levels in your forecast are very high. How do you get to a place where you have the confidence in the outlook for—say, inflation and/or growth or the une...
Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal. Chair Powell, I guess I’m wondering if you could explain a little more the divergence we see in the dot plot, particularly around the 2025 rate projections. I realize this is—you know, you have one group of officials that are putting down no cuts, another that are putting down more than one—and recognizing that could be difficult to summarize, but is it a matter of people having a different outlook or a different reaction function? A different commitment to defending against another inflation mistake? How, how did that play out over the last two days?	NICK TIMIRAOS	[ { "content": "Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal. Chair Powell, I guess I’m wondering if you could explain a little more the divergence we see in the dot plot, particularly around the 2025 rate projections. I realize this is—you know, you have one group of officials that are putting down no cuts, another ...