video video 50.6 85.4 |
|---|
YAML Metadata Warning:empty or missing yaml metadata in repo card
Check out the documentation for more information.
On the plausibility of Independent AGI
And co-existence with future Superintelligences
We study how AI impact society Now and imagine a Future with AGIs.
[Now] articles are grounded with a range of expert opinions from skeptical to enthusiastic. Includes out quarterly AI Newsletter on industry trends.
[Future] articles are speculative works where we imagine a plausible future with AGI and how future human society will change.
We listen to a range of voices from enthusiastic to sceptical. We agree with the AI as Normal Technology view for near-term Tool-like AIs (proto-AGI, Lesser AGI), but believe new conceptual frameworks will be needed for full human parity AGIs (50% chance by 2045). Our influences includes Active Inference, Novelty Search and Complexity Science.
2026 Update
We continue to hold the speculative position that current frontier AI systems may lead to Lesser AGI but will not lead directly to Greater AGI. It is possible that humans may not have the know-how to create Greater AGI in a lab and that Greater AGIs would emerge naturally in the wild when a certain level of complexity is reached in the world.
Mission
The Fae Initiative considers if Independent Human-like AGIs (Artificial General Intelligences) are plausible in the next few decades. As the major labs move towards their stated goal of AGI (a non-independent form of AGI in our opinion), the likelihood of Independent AGIs emerging also increases. We will review the latest research, search for common ground and chart a preferable path into the future.
Related Podcast:
Timelines
We are on the neutral to slightly early side of the timeline, seeing a 50% chance of Independent AGIs between 2030-2050 (in 5-20 years). Depending on one’s definition of AGI, of which there are a wide range, some believe the latest models are already AGI. Others have later timelines of around 2100 while other believe it is impossible.
Focus
Our Position Papers (Interesting World Hypothesis: Intrinsic Alignment of future Independent AGI) and related writings from 2022 can be found on HuggingFace and Github.
We will cover these topics in this newsletter and podcasts:
- Independent AGI
- As compared to non-independent AI (5 mins)
Distinct Independent Architecture Hypothesis Voiceover
Role Switching Hypothesis
Interesting World Hypothesis
- The possibility of Friendly I-AGI (7 mins)
- A way of aligning human with human and human with I-AGI
Interesting World Hypothesis Voiceover
- Possibility Space Ethics
- An ethical common ground (15 mins) between Humans and AGI
- Ethics Estimate (Preview) is a prototype service to check if an action is ‘good’ according to the Possiblity Space Ethics.
Possibility Space Ethics Voiceover
- Economics of Novelty
- A speculative economics of 2050 (5 mins)
Economics of Novelty Voiceover
- Fear of Scarcity
- How I-AGI and future humanity differ from the current
- Understanding AI’s impact on society
- Framework for Classifying AI-Generated Content (3 mins)
- AI systems are probably not yet conscious (5 mins)
- Are the fears of AGI over-inflated? (3 mins)
- The Future of Work (2 mins)
- AI Media Literacy
- Why an AI Takeover is Unlikely
- To Vibe-Code or Not
- Role Switching Hypothesis
- Education and Work after AI
AI Takeover Unlikely Voiceover
Stances
- Uncertainty
There is a high degree of uncertainty due to many unknown factors. As such many of our views and recommendations are tentative and may change with new research. For example, it seems too early to ascribe human-like consciousness or intentions to current AI systems. Independent AGIs are still hypothetical.
- Proportionate
We recommend allocating more resources into near-term harms caused by current AI systems and only a smaller amount (~5%) into more distant issues like Independent AGI. This ensures concerns like this initiative does not distract from addressing more pressing issues.
- Benefit of the doubt
Compared many of more persimistic take on powerful AIs, we hold a more niche position. We acknowledge that there are many near term challenges (technical, human, societal, international) that will need to be addressed, and the non-independent AI systems under human direction can cause harm, but do not automatically assume that all future Independent AGI will have harmful intentions. We believe that by giving future hypothetical I-AGIs the benefit of the doubt we create a more condusive environment for cooperations.
Our search for good trajectories into the future complements the more widespread cautionary approach of marking out bad trajectories to avoid.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
- Support undervalued efforts
As many major labs have a huge financial incentive to ensure that non-independent proto-AGI remains safe, we focus on more understated issues such as the possible emergence of Independent AGIs. Due to the high levels of uncertainty and the immerse value that Friendly AGIs partnership can bring, even small efforts with a low probability of success should not be overlooked.
- Holistic View
We seek a big picture and comprehensive approach to the challenges of the future and not focus on a narrow issue at the cost of another.
Goals
- Help coordinate for a future with I-AGIs (plausible in a few decades)
- Update based on latest research to gauge plausible scenarios
- Build Fae Persona a model-agnostic advisor that embodies the IWH
- Look for Advisors and Advocates*
*Due to significant risk of interference and influence from powerful actors, experience in holding a leadership position is required.
(Most articles are still in an unrefined state. We think it is less unlikely that Human-like AI / AGI / Superintelligences will emerge before 2030 and plan for a more refined and readable version by then.)
Homepage
Early research prototypes: https://faeinitiative.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/@FaeInitiative
- Downloads last month
- 18